2024: Year of Contrasts

And Contests....

It is certainly my opinion that this year will be fraught with conflicts, but revealed often through contrasts and contests that don't rise to the level of conflict. The sheer volume of information about to be released requires the appropriate backdrops for effective optimization. Narrative warfare is (or will be) switching teams.

Maldive Islands has so far only secured item #16 on our Democracy is… …. post and none on other radar. Tiny island grouping situated halfway between the north of Indonesia and the Horn of Africa, they are economically a vacation getaway for Europeans - that represents at least a 10% share of the country's gross GDP. (Other combined tourism revenue sources is another 20%+/-). We spotlighted the winner of their Sep 30 election, one Mohamed Muizzu. Frankly, other than noticing at the time that the incoming regime was pro-China where the outgoing one was pro-India, it just seemed to me that European-American assets must not have been able to be everywhere at this time. Then the world according to Israel blew up and all eyes were elsewhere.

But recently a tug of wills war has sprung up warranting a closer look. The ink wasn't dry on the election before the then President-elect Muizzu was requesting that his former boss, ex-President Abdulla Yameen (also pro-China), be released from jail to house arrest for his corruption charges. PM Modi warmly congratulated him on his win and stated hopes for maintaining India's strong bond with the country. With China's naval assets growing almost exponentially, this apparent geopolitical volleyball game could have considerable global security repositioning consequences. Three weeks later Israel included Maldives on a short list of countries they urgently recalled their nationals from.

This is a short Maldives timeline to give further moves and perspective:

11.4 Issues invitation to Modi but suggests his “full independence” platform requires Indian military personnel departure.

11.17 Inauguration Day

11.18 Issues formal request for troop withdrawal.

11.19 Publishes list of Indian military positions and that there are 100 bilateral pacts from the previous five years that are under review.

12.2 Modi and Muizzu meeting at COP28 in Dubai. Agreement to establish a core group for addressing Indian military assets.

12.4 Core group established on Indian military platforms. (Here's your hat; what's the hurry!?)

1.5 Announcement of Muizzu visit to China Jan 8-12. (Operation Warp Speed met its nemesis.)

1.8 President and First Lady Muizzu arrive in Beijing. ⬇

Next we will look at a situation development from (mostly) the Indian side:

1.4 Modi tweets about Lakshadweep, and it having an archipelago perfect for vacationing.

1.6 Sputnik interview of an Indian naval veteran:

🔸🇮🇳 Modi Sends Out 'Strong Message' to Maldives Through Lakshadweep Visit

🏰 Modi’s visit has sent out a “strategic message” to the Maldives and other countries, an Indian Navy veteran Seshadri Vasan told Sputnik India, adding that the islands are an important "naval outpost" for India in the western Indian Ocean.

"<...> India has been using its military facilities there for purposes such as medical evacuation as well as keeping the Sea Lines of Communications under observation,” Vasan said.

Significance of Lakshadweep to India

👁 Under PM Modi, India has increasingly shored up its “surveillance capabilities” on the island chain, a process which had begun under the previous Congress-led government, Indian Navy veteran said.

“India would cement its role as the first responder to any crisis in the Indian Ocean as well as being a net security provider <...>,” Vasan asserted.

Indian PM Narendra Modi has pitched the archipelago of Lakshadweep as a tourist hotspot as he shared that India aims to "position Lakshadweep prominently on the international tourism map."

🏝 “PM Modi thus seems to be pushing to developing this as an alternative tourist destination for not only Indian travelers, but also for those from Europe and the Middle East, many of them known to frequent the Maldives,” the veteran said.

1.6 Nearly immediate response from Maldive officials:

🔸🇲🇻🇮🇳 Maldives Minister Slammed By Predecessors For Comments On Indian PM

A number of former Maldivian ministers have posted comments on social media in support of India after one of their colleagues made derogatory remarks about PM Narendra Modi.

⚠️ The wave of comments came after the Maldives government, following a nudge from its former President Mohammed Nasheed, distanced itself from the comments of Mariyam Shiuna and others.

❌ Former Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih condemned the hateful language used by Maldivian officials. He emphasized the friendly relations between the two countries and noted that this occasion should not negatively impact their longstanding friendship.

"💬 I strongly condemn any derogatory and racist comments made by a group of Maldivian politicians towards His Excellency PM Modi and beloved citizens of India," posted the Maldives' former minister Ahmed Adeeb on X, formerly Twitter.

"Considering the global economic challenges and the vulnerability of the Maldives tourism industry, it is crucial for us to maintain a friendly and humble approach while fostering positive relations," he added.

"💬 I call on the Government to reprimand these officials. Public figures must maintain decorum. They must accept that they are no longer social media activists and that they are now entrusted with the responsibility of protecting the interests of the people and the country," posted former FM Abdulla Shahid.🔸

1.6 Maldives tourism sites go offline.

Maldives 🇲🇻 Foreign Ministry and Tourism sites show error, hours after their Govt sponsored trolls attacked Indian 🇮🇳 Govt

Info credit: Aditya Raj Kaul 🔸

1.7 Maldives Government response.

🔸UPDATE

"All government officials responsible for the comments have been suspended from their post effective immediately"

- Maldives govt spokesperson, Ibrahim Khaleel

All three Maldives govt. ministers have been suspended, reports Sidhant Sibal, Diplomatic & Defence Correspondent for WION News

- Maryam Shiuna
- Malsha Shareef 
- Mahzoom Majid🔸

🔸🇮🇳 🇲🇻 India summons Maldivian envoy after 'derogatory' remarks against PM Modi

◾️ Maldives High Commissioner Ibrahim Shaheeb was summoned by Indian foreign ministry after 'derogatory' remarks against Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, according to the Indian media.

🗣 The government of the Maldives on Sunday suspended three deputy ministers for derogatory social media posts against Modi.

The three deputy ministers criticised Modi for his post on ‘X’ following his visit to Lakshadweep, inferring that it was an attempt to project the Union Territory as an alternative tourist destination to the Maldives.🔸

🇲🇻 #Maldives Foreign Minister Zameer received a phone call from the 🇺🇸 #US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.🔸

🔸EaseMyTrip suspends all Maldives flight bookings following row over anti-PM Modi remarks

Indian travel company EaseMyTrip on Monday announced the suspension all Maldives flight bookings following the derogatory remarks made against PM Narendra Modi and India by Maldives ministers.
Read more 🔸

1.8 Boycott Maldives trending on SM. - (15 minute video recap for diehards!)

🇲🇻⚡️🇮🇳Is the Maldives' tourism industry dependent on India?

In 2022, the Maldives saw 1,675,303 arrivals, increasing to 1,878,543 in 2023, marking a 12.13% rise. The EU led with 536,153 tourists, followed by India (209,198), Russia (209,146), China (187,118), and the U.S. (74,575).

Tourism contributes significantly, constituting around one-third of the GDP, generating $3.49 billion in 2021.

India, contributing to less than 25% of the total tourists, has a limited impact on the Maldives' tourism industry. While the average tourist spends around $2,507 US, Indian tourists, on the other hand, barely make a dent, spending around 80,000 INR – less than a $1000.

Thailand leads as the top export market (46.36%), followed by Germany (11.43%), the UK (6.79%), France (4.08%), and India (3.94%). In imports, Oman is primary (13.12%), followed by the UAE (12.95%), China (12.58%), India (12.36%), and Singapore (10.18%).

So the "MaldivesBoycott" (by Indians) won’t make much of a difference! 🔗Fidato 🔸

🇮🇱 #Israeli embassy in India promoting Lakshadweep tourism and also commented that there were invited by the federal government to initiate a desalinization program.🔸

🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇

Honestly, there are so many ways to look at this (so far) mini war it is difficult to even list them. First thought was how much it felt like Venezuela-Guyana coming from next door like a comet landing out of the blue. Then I wondered what else besides that core group was hatched in that COP28 tete a tete. Last on the short list was how strategic that location was for the revised shipping routes being diverted around Africa as we contemplate numbers of other possible mirrors (such as the EU sanctioning themselves whenever they boycott Russia - India's military personnel do much more than maintain planes in the Maldives). The list could get very long. But it does seem odd to me that there weren't any kind of NGOs preventing this (very Syria reminiscent) coziness with Xi from happening. Why not? Are they that sure about the election in Indonesia? (They lost in Bangladesh btw but the opposition boycotted the elections so no real contest.)

W knew this year would be crazy. Seems like it's taking no detours at all. It appears like hours to go before a rest stop. Keep those seat belts buckled!

Go to Part 2.