African Narratives

Let's see how many hold up...

Today, we are looking at news and reports from a single week time span from many different sources. Each country will be listed separately so that the narratives can be assessed collective to each one. The common theme should be self evident but if not, it's escalation. Everything is starting to burn hotter. So we begin.

◾Ethiopia celebrates the New Year of 2016. The cradle of Christianity rejects the Gregorian calendar, having 13 months/year with a seven year differential in addition. (Perhaps not the most politic decision in a Church pushed world for their determined alterations. As Tigray well knows.)

◾Representatives of Ministries of Defense from 12 African Countries meet in Minsk, Belarus. Lukashenko recently has a high degree of interest in Africa. (Wagner still lives there?)

◾Niger junta ends military accord with Benin. This was due to “authorizing the deployment of soldiers, mercenaries, and war materials” on its territory for potential direction by ECOWAS. This account uses the word fears in the headline - so narrative pushy. And Burkina Faso delivers 265 truckloads of varied goods and commodities to the Nigerien people.

◾A Tunisian judge issues arrest warrants for 12 “prominent political figures”. These include a former PM and presidential CoS, plus the son of an Islamist political party leader. Charges are forming a terrorist alliance and conspiring against the state. All 12 happened to be out of the country at the time of issuance(😎). (So, obviously advance notice was given. Are they being observed for dragging a net around accomplices or being let off the hook to continue dirty deeds? Tick tock.) In other news, an EU parliamentary delegation bent on conference with government opposition groups was denied entry into the country, sparking vociferous protest (from the EU). The authorities persisted with only the original denial, claiming they were deputies of the Foreign Affairs Committee.

◾In Gabon, Nguema (in addition to the previously reported appointments and two year time frame to “democracy”) is praised indirectly by RFI for (first) holding a “bloodless coup” (implying all the others were not) and then for resumption of military cooperation with France. (Do you think he feels it necessary to have his own Republican Guard to protect him from the scary Americans?)

Speaking of the devil, this Conversation Africa piece tries in a fairly long fashion if not hard, to paint America as “out of step” (i.e., clueless) about these (sudden) coups. And to pair Niger and Gabon together as related if not twins. But then lists the major differences - despite reticence by the Administration to label Niger a coup they have proceeded to block aid payments anyway and at the same time have no problem using coup language for Gabon, yet wreak no financial repercussions on them at all. Victoria visits Bazoum, but not Bongo. And then leaves us with this: “For example, America can better pressure the continent's autocrats, such as Paul Biya of Cameroon and Rwanda's Paul Kagame, to institute genuine democratic reforms and make way for new leadership.” (coup alerts!)

And in another stunning repeat action, Nguema is reactivating the corruption investigation that only managed to pull in one Chief of Staff and assorted bluish collar associates before. (Anybody wanna bet on whether his activities are investigated alongside the Bongo family? Third time's the charm?)

◾Regarding Mali, Wagner Group posted on TG about the early clashes this week and a general call to arms from the citizenry to join the military and Wagner forces to repel these attacks. Rybar posts a good description of the crossed narratives between Taureg forces and Malian but describes without elaboration the situation as a new “headache” for Russia. They further discuss some history (such as French backed Taureg rebellion and misinformation campaigns) and posit the presumed Wagner asset roll up may not be quite as simple in reality as it was on paper. (👀watching) Later in the week, an action of terrorists to use car bombs in the Timbuktu region was exposed and destroyed using airstrikes. I’m sure it was comforting to Malian citizens when national TV put to bed the rumors swirling with different stories on Burem. They showed military footage of drone strikes by the armed forces to achieve victory over militants there.

The junta decided to cancel Independence Day celebrations planned for next week and use the funding instead to help citizens in the Gao region affected by hostilities.

In light of the recent Yevkurov tour of our Sahel group just a little over a week ago, we find him back in just Mali so far this time. Meeting with Defense Ministers and PM Goita. The presumption is that Russia does intend to take over for Wagner operations. A separate source picks up that Angrei Averyanov, supposed head of GRU clandestine ops, was also in attendance. Very interesting. Rybar finally chimes in again and adds that Defense ministers from Niger were also at this meeting, and that the Azawad Taureg Coordination Movement is being directly supported by French Intelligence Agency DGSE. Plans are active for an attack on the city of Gao and their forces are being led by these agents. On offer is an independent state for them and ongoing assistance to fight IS and Jnim factions. In addition to concentration of insurgent fire upon Mali, they hope to weaken Russia's influence in the region. Or at least make it costly. There is evidence of long term planning as two DGSE operatives were wounded in a clash with IS two months ago in northern Mali. Escalation indeed.

◾In Somalia, the Armed Forces conducted a successful antiterrorism operation. Special Forces DANAB completed a 48 hour assault against 120 militants of the terrorist group al-Shabab al-Mujahideen, eliminating them all.

◾In this Sputnik Africa article about an Amnesty International report detailing DRC human rights violations in copper mining enterprises, a BRICS affiliated think tanker tells them about the “resource curse” theory and the more peer to peer approach from Global South nations than from Western ones. These sections really shine: “According to Professor Chukwuemezie Raphael Eze, Professor in Political Science Department, Faculty Of Social Sciences in Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Nigeria, the report released by Amnesty International is “in tandem with overall Western countries policy towards Africa”.

In particular, the expert told Sputnik Africa that such Western policies include increasing the poverty of the African population by depriving locals of the means of production and livelihood, which is “necessary for continued Western dependency syndrome”.

Furthermore, Eze pointed out that the West in its African policy counts on forcing migrants into Western countries to attract cheap labor, offers small compensation to mining projects-affected Africans to “destabilize Africa's political economy”, and collaborates with local militia in a divide-and-conquer policy which leads to national disunity.”

As for the alternatives that Africa has instead of cooperating with the West, Eze suggested that it should be the rise of “courageous political leadership” to power in African countries that would diversify ties “the less exploitative and less dehumanizing world powers like Russia and China”.

According to the pundit, Moscow and Beijing have been offering some “checks and balances” in the global arena, where “might makes right and justice is the advantage of the stronger”.

◾France’s FM suspends “all projects” with funded cultural centers in Burkina Faso, and also Niger and Mali. The letter may have limited this immediately to visa applications but this was in conflict with the initial directive statement. Later the Culture Minister had to backtrack regarding the scope when art and entertainment unions objected. (Gotta have that stuff; oops.)

◾Burkina Faso is reported to have expelled the French military attache for “subversive activities”. Subsequent reports reveal that this entity is identified as Defense Attache Pasquier and his staff personnel, with 14 days to depart. These follow the French Ambassador, a senior UN envoy, and French media.

◾President Macron accuses Niger junta of seizing the Ambassador and Embassy staff in Niger. In a later speech he claims they are held hostage and eating military rations. (Of course, this is all disingenuous, because they are free to go to the airport of their choice for departure, and I bet the junta would feed them on their way. I wonder if this is another Benghazi set up in the making.)

◾At this latest session of the UN General Assembly, DRC ministers followed up on a December 2022 report with even more voluminous evidence of proven Rwandan aggression causing “a humanitarian tragedy” by supporting a rebellion in the East of its territory. The original claimed Rwandan AF criminal activities with M23 auxiliaries. In a similar reporting, VOA is concerned that Cameroon, CAR, and Chad have all been reporting rogue elements roving the border areas and looting markets but primarily kidnapping families of ranchers or business people for ransom. Patrols have made some inroads but it is a persistent problem. (theme building…)

◾In the I had been wondering who among my usual sources would break this ground first department, Stategika51 did the honors (only one in fact). He (and I) wonder if the recent Apple IPhone 12 problem revelations are more political than physical. (Not that it isn't true what they are purporting, but that it wasn't a problem before the US started stomping on their ground.)

◾In another see what happens when you sleep with dogs (US in particular) incident, the mayor of Juba, South Sudan (the same one that is 12 years in the democracy making process, but continuing to reap billions in US aid) is in some deep stuff. Having been caught on camera slapping a female street vendor, calls for his resignation are very loud. He has no comment, and remains in office despite all the public condemnation and a letter from Parliament unanimously calling for his removal. (Only wonder is that some Democrat mayor in the US hasn't offered pointers on how to beat this rap.)

◾Our last look today is listed separately not because it is about CAR, but because it is the biggest, and possibly most narrative busting of all these examples. It concerns the recent visit of President Faustin Touadera to Paris, destination Emmanuel Macron. This has everyone in a tizzy on some level or another. I’m going to list these offerings chronologically. Then we will visit Karen's mental meanderings.

Rybar (who is often first in our analysis cadre) paints this very black from the start. He is jumping ship, returning to the French fold, and disappointingly says radio tower maintenance, which Wagner used to do, is a major cause of this defection. Then an update merely condenses those thoughts but the tone improves slightly. A very short AfricaNews piece says that according to French sources he is there to discuss “bilateral relations” and the situation in CAR as well as regional issues”. (Stick a pin in that.) Then AfricaIntel basically reports that news version with a statement added to the effect that Russian MoD/Wagner tensions were “forcing” Touadera to revive French relations in order to stay in power. ArabAfrica wins the prize for being first to recognize that a major purpose for the trip was his meeting with the Nguema/Gabon junta. Then Artem Blinov at Wagner posts a veritable treason declaration. (Massively over the top, actually.) Hopes Touadera is merely a black sheep and not a trendsetter of defection. Does, however, tell us that only yesterday, Putin was talking about Western colonialists, slavery, (20th C. zoo cage exhibit) displays, and other horrors. It ends with a (likely non sequitur) admonition to finish paving the roads in Bangui, although it seems he knew that the asphalt ran out and the equipment was sold to Sudan for parts. (<= Something very coded here IMO.)

Then our last entrant is Middle East Eye reprinted on ZeroHedge. It is a sprawling saga with the merest mention of this meeting placed in the center. It is more a MSM treatise than anything else, but mentions something not one of those other sources did or have yet. Which is why it made my list. The claim relative to this scenario is that in addition to Russian and (waning) Wagner forces, Rwandan military and mercenaries are working for CAR Defense and security. On the basis of a photo of one dead Russian soldier and “claims” of others from rebels, the headline was about heavy “Wagner losses”. So you know something is looking wrong here on principle. Also that same old saw about Wagner assisting RSF in Sudan. Moving on.

So my take from minute one was that no one was really “seeing” the optics here. This was a man who espoused the warmest of praise for the assistance of the Russian Federation in liberating CAR from the yoke of colonialism at the Russia Africa Summit. Met with Yevgeny Prigozhin there. Just eight short weeks ago. No matter what has happened in the intervening two months since St. Petersburg, I do not believe that he went to Paris on any account of CAR. Of course, as long as he was there, discussions on the subject could be had. And he certainly was open to that. But he made it perfectly clear that Russia was going not one inch distant from CAR, and equally implied in that statement the inverse as well. All the reports that said he was there for bilateral talks were fairly clear that assessment came from the French administration. He went as the head representative of ECCAS. That is why he quite publicly traded hugs with Emmanuel. (Or needed that optic for another purpose. I looked at hundreds of images of Touadera and didn't find one of him hugging another creature - man, woman, child, or cute animal.) That is why period. . .

The Russian MoD train went through CAR on its first tour post Prigozhin plane crash. Not a ripple in the thin veneer of civility that the press employs. But now that the MSM wants to create a BFF scenario happening between Macron and Touadera we are all going to fall in line like sardines in a can? Not this fishy; that just isn't a possibility at this point.

I am not saying (much) that everyone up there (whom I admire and generally align with) is wrong. It is of course possible that they are all perfectly correct. I don't know whether they factored into their opinions that the Defense Minister, Claude Bireau, went to the Russian Army Expo just six weeks ago with a delegation. And had bilateral talks about placing a Russian military base in the country. But I haven't gotten here by following other's wisdom or folly. I've gotten here by “seeing” what others don't. While by no means infallible, my track record isn't miserable either. Just hang with me on this one until something further crops up to refute or verify.

One last note though. Ever since Sudan started in April there have been about half a dozen CAR citizen marches in support of Wagner and Russia. When your population is that firmly behind those stars, what galaxy does it make sense to stay in? No matter the perceived personal or professional cost. Don't be misled by MSM; they are all over this sales pitch like weaponized mosquitoes in an unvaxxed nudist camp.

Stay frosty, guys. We will revisit this. Guaranteed. Gloom or gloat.