If you are a newer reader, you may not have read my Mutiny series starting on Jun 24. Two months ago exactly. I never bought the enraged, overset, angry Prigozhin act. It's not that I didn't believe him capable of those emotions. But I doubt seriously he typically exhibits those during times of decision making. This is one calculator intellect and laser focused individual. I had been studying him throughout the ammo arguments and African safaris and always had a hard time keeping a straight face. I know, right? I must be crazy.
But then the Kremlin and MoD kept playing along. Prigozhin rant. Crickets. Repeat on months long loop. Western media writes another piece highlighting his political ambitions or other ridiculous story. My suspicion meter just would not reset.
Maybe it is mostly that you can't unsee what you have already seen. Yevgeny is a film maker. Nothing on the order of Hollywood mind you, but still, he has access to all the needed basics. He has war films in his portfolio. Honestly, a small jet crash scene in rural Russia would maybe take a technician an hour. A set designer a few hours, and the pyrotechnics a day at most. Everything operated by remote control. So far at least there is only one video showing the actual descent and crash. Convenient. This happened at approximately 6:00 p.m. local time by my estimates so no crowds outside as inconvenient witnesses. I could proceed down that path but I feel sure you see the next bend at least already.
My ability to accept this narrative and then also move on simply does not exist. And I am not nearly as alone as I was two months ago. So you've already seen what I think; lets delve in to some other opinions and thoughts.
I'm going to go outlet by outlet here mostly. There may be some time overlap, but it's not extreme. So we are going to start with Strategika51 source, one of my favorites as it usually does not consist of a lot of reposted stuff. One of the most interesting was also one of the latest posts - claiming that YP's cell phone was among the wreckage but not the body. Raising his suspicion meter but unconfirmed, so moving back a little he posts a link to an article on his website. In it after the usual as yet known facts he continues:
“It seems that the Russian government knowingly maintains the ambiguity on the fate of Prigogine. This ambiguity comes under the rules of an agreed game within the framework of a shadow war and a declared war in which the boss of Wagner is both actor and target of a multitude of internal and external adversaries.”
After some brief description of recent Belarus and Sahel region activities he starts the next section:
“The first question which therefore arises is the following: was Prigogine eliminated or did he eliminate himself? Knowing the character and his propensity to cover his tracks, diversion and PsyOps, nothing is to be ruled out.”
More descriptions of potential enemies - headlined by every major country's intelligence agencies - plus that the June 24 event isn't fully known although psyop features prominently, and that other countries produced all the war criminal content against Wagner forces. Then concludes: “It's a good war. Disinformation, psychological warfare operations and ruses of war. Nothing new in this global Hybrid War.”
I obviously stuck a pin in that. My thoughts exactly. The next is TG channel Middle East Spectator. Two early videos the first of which was the one I referenced above. Here you go:
We will get to my problems with these in a minute. Then this photo was added.
Next we are going to add a little more data for our analysis. This video is from Wagner Group channel - flight path of the second plane returning to Moscow.
Then another citizen video of the crash scene:
Followed by a second flight path for the other plane:
Before we dig into those there's one other piece of information we need. It comes from Rybar in English channel and I promise ties this up.
In this graph above the blue line is altitude (left side) and the yellow is speed in knots (right side); the bottom axis is presumably flight time. Up until 15:07 it appears that everything is within usual limits but there's a rather steep drop of 100 knots of speed at that time that was regained before surpassing it at 15:12. Where it drops to the ground. At that time the altitude has been steadily climbing and was about 28,000 feet.
The speed may just be a headwind or something like that. But it clearly shows the plane was in no irretrievable flight condition. The interesting thing to me is the 28,000 feet of altitude. I'm no mathmetician but the force of a 28,000 foot fall does not match those videos or pictures in my estimation.
That crash looked close enough to me in the first video that we would have heard a sound when it landed/exploded; it's just not there. Good thing she ducked behind the shed just when that happened. The second video is letting an awful lot of civilians run around right next to a burning plane for my senses, especially with what looks like officials close by. The first picture and third video just don't match any of that. The plane was headed nose first the whole way down but the top of the cockpit (which doesn't look like the original plane at all) is fairly intact - the windshield looks better than many a car I see on the road daily. The debris is in too tight a circle. There's no indentation in the ground anywhere. From stuff that fell 28,000 feet.
The first indicated flight path of the second plane returning to Moscow does not have a time stamp/duration so it's harder to evaluate. Accounts had that plane circling Moscow for over an hour. The second flight video shows it reaching St Petersburg and returning. Which was it? That may get clarified later but the rest is not that simple.
The final Wagner post is an audio but has a synopsis. It reads: “All the first commanders of PMC "Wagner" confirmed the death of Yevgeny Viktorovich. Personally, we do not believe in this and do not want to believe!
We earnestly request no action, no movement towards memorials and monuments, no motor rallies and no rallies, without a command not to take. All further actions will come from the video appeal of the commanders.”
It does not appear to be purely grief speaking here to me. And I listened to the entire audio. Not devoid of any emotion but certainly no excess of it. And someone was whistling in the background.
The last exhibit is the cadre of Western news stories waiting to go as soon as this was more than a rumor. They are courtesy Rybar and VoZmezdie2022. So ready for this to happen. Again. Almost like they knew somehow.
Well there's more, but this is enough to make a case for something may be suspect in Moscow. One other notation of interest. Today is also the celebration of Ukraine's independence from USSR in 1991. 32 years to reach the bottom of the barrel. No matter how this plane crash winds up turning out, I’m sure Yevgeny is enjoying the impact he has made on this year's celebration.
A late entrant for an opposition view comes from Pepe Escobar, who posted that the CIA (Larry) does NOT confirm Prigozhin’s demise. Spoilsports.
Go to Part 2.