Escalation Everywhere Else

Continued Fall Extravaganza

So, I was having some connectivity issues Sunday while trying to get that report out. There were a few typos and one edit that apparently didn't make it in that I thought had been accepted. Not gonna worry about the typos or reissue a correction. But I do want to state the edit because the statement made about Gen. Javalyan being deceased was unconfirmed at the time of print. It was reported, then later semi retracted, and has yet to be confirmed one way or the other. I like to select edgy stories but not at the expense of facts. So now our housekeeping is all done, let's continue on with our growing list.

We'll go with the new stories and regions today and if space and internet are available we'll update a few stories from last time. Our first story is a mega earth shattering deal. This may actually be the headline for the month.

◾Assad Goes to China◾

It has been nearly 20 years since the last visit of President Assad to China - before Xi even came to power. And there is perhaps no more embattled (by the West) figure and country (besides Putin and Russia) than Assad and Syria. I won't use the word here (reserving it for Putin's upcoming scheduled trip to Beijing) but some have called it a watershed event. It is certainly highly significant, particularly in the evidence of winning department. This is about rebuilding Syria. Neither of these men would be discussing those prospects if there weren't reason to believe it was going to be producible in the near future. Months not years.

Syria “today is more committed to heading east because this principle is the political, cultural and economic guarantee for Syria,” Assad told the Chinese premier, Li Qiang.  This meeting was the full spectrum of diplomatic pageantry reserved for the highest visiting dignitaries. Dozens of government ministers on both sides creating both charters and means of execution of a new era of communication and cooperation in the future. Syria joined BRI 20 months ago and will attend that upcoming conference. They are also at the threshold of an observer status at SCO.

I believe this diplomatic powwow is responsible for much of the timing of some of our events listed below. And even our ones from the previous discussion. While none were purely distraction to dilute attention away from it, the incidence of overlap is simply too great to be mere coincidence. China is always dealt with in this manner; dilution of their news feed is very common.

◾Kim goes to Russia◾

While this event, the Eastern Economic Forum, preceded our timeline, I include it for several reasons. First, to demonstrate the different war news treatment for Russia and sometimes for NK - ignore it altogether. Second, to demonstrate the added Eastern pivot happening at the business community level. But mostly, to introduce DPRK Leader Kim Jong-un onto our stage. He, with the delegation shown below, visited Putin and government ministers in Vladivostok for several days during this event.

There are many beams of light emanating still from this year's version of what has in the past been a building head of steam for the dedollarization, and indeed now risen to de-Westernizing, movement of the Global South.

“A key conclusion is that the stage is set for a common Eurasia payment system - part of the Eurasian Economic Union's (EAEU) draft declaration for 2030-2045 – against the backdrop of Hybrid War and “toxic currencies” (83 per cent of EAEU transactions already bypass them).” One notation made in support was that in the past seven years, India has risen from flat zero to 40% of worldwide payment processing capacity.

“Putin emphasized that Russia and the DPRK are developing several joint projects in transportation, communications, logistics, and naval sectors.

So much more than military and space matters amicably discussed by Putin and Kim, the heart of the matter is geoeconomics: a trilateral Russia-China-DPRK cooperation, with the distinct outcome of increased container traffic transiting through the DPRK and the tantalizing possibility of DPRK rail reaching Vladivostok and then connecting deeper into Eurasia via the Trans-Siberian line.”

That above was a shot across the Western world bow. Infantmilitario posted contemporaneous with that report that PM Kishida was ready to meet with Kim but there were no trains available yet. Today, France24, writes that China, Japan, and South Korea will hold a summit soon, details TBD. Not precisely the same I know, but seems to suggest the logistics might yet be found. The impetus for the agreement sprang from a meeting of foreign ministers in Seoul today. After the recent Camp David agreement Chinese dignitaries were seen in Pyongyang at military parades.

Winning looks like this too.

◾Armenia - Azerbaijan ◾

I am locating this here because there is really a new narrative developing now. So this part won't be an update on bilateral events happening pertinent to the past week of war, protests, disarmament, or exodus. This is about what is building in our seats of power and potentially why.

NATO is whining (really, no other term applies) via an unnamed EU official that Turkey is preventing them from playing a more active role in helping reduce tensions in Karabakh. (Imagine that!) And amid Erdogan (from Nakhchivan, no less) recalling and reminding them that F-16s were offered quid pro quo for Sweden's NATO accession. (No mention of EU membership. BTW, Hungary is picking up this veto baton.) So the Turkish lira reached a new low today. He also had comments on Zangezur - that it was time for Armenia to do its duty by her citizens and procure peace in the region through following up on the agreement to open the corridor. But he also said that if it doesn't run through Karabakh it will run through Iran.

This makes so much more sense than allowing Armenia (Western puppet regime) to whine, waffle, and ultimately weasel out. I was and still am perplexed by the war drums beating for the “immediate corridor war” being predicted. I could not reconcile that with Azerbaijan transporting thousands of Armenian soldiers back to Armenia, especially those who had broken the ceasefire agreement. To engage against them again in an immediate war? And that cozy meeting between Iranian and Azerbaijani FMs at the UN is a factor in that assessment, too.

But this is also about Erdogan, quite deliberately throwing another spoke in a NATO wheel. (Those Azov prisoners begin to look really cheap in comparison.) And I doubt we are going to see any cooling off with Putin this time. While some see a panTurkic Ottoman Empire ambition, that shift to move the corridor to Iranian territory would eliminate the need for this war. If Azerbaijan and Iran can come up with a deal, especially with trilateral Turkish (or other) backing, Iran still has its access through Armenia with a possible backup route through Azerbaijan. (And no border changes!) Turkey gets what Erdogan wants. And NATO gets the short end of nothing. In my simple way of looking at this, anyway. Winning potential.

The Azeri-Armenian negotiations will happen on October 5, in Granada, Spain. A preliminary meeting between Aide to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev with the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan is happening today in Brussels.

◾Serbia◾

This event was just starting Sunday and news was dropping more quickly than accurately. My false flag meter was ringing loudly but only on intuition. Pretty much we have a group of armed Serbs tying it up with Kosovo Police (1 dead, 2 injured casualties). Still no sure indication of what started it, although that is not always a determined factor. Albanians say they were attempting to stop 2 vans with no plates.

Since this encounter, Kosovo police and special forces have closed access to the north of Kosovo and Metohija (KiM). And been patrolling throughout. A village of Banska is occupied and the monastery there is surrounded and under fire with 30 pilgrims inside. No ambulances for those injured inside are permitted. The Kosovo Prima Minister Kurti, claims to have video of “about 30 armed Serbian paramilitary insurgents” but what was given to President Vucic was either too blurry or actually had scenes from Karabakh.

The US Embassy, German Embassy, and OSCE (democracy and conflict resolution NGO) immediately (per usual) blamed Serbia. Given that next to no information was available at that time, (either) Pristina was given a “green light” on an ethnic cleansing operation (or this is a false flag operation for all the usual suspect reasons).

This account claims to know that Serbia did not fund anything like this but says that one way or another there will be an insurgency in this region. And Vucic is using this event now for nationalistic credit.

Joachim Flores (who lives there) posted Sunday that “Albanians have mustered a force in short time. In an hour and 20 minutes they gathered 460 men while international forces cut off the routes for the eventual extraction of a group of local Serbs towards central Serbia, which achieved their mutual coordination on the ground. UAVs were also engaged. This shows that it was planned ahead of time. It means they have been preparing for this, it means that they wanted this to happen - Vucic”.

By yesterday, nearly everyone else had “false flag” by Kosovo as an option on their list. As you may recall Serbia topped my list for potential first militant activity before Armenia and Azerbaijan stole that title. Hoping actually that we get a movie screen version of it. Perhaps this is a precursor.

◾Canada India Flap◾

So the start of this dust up came out of a Trudeau charge that a Sikh resident leader, Hardeep Nijjar, was assassinated by Indian agents. There was a little back and forth but before you knew anything for sure, India was closing issuance of visas to Canadians, suspended trade negotiations, and expelled a Canadian diplomat. The Sikh community in Canada (largest outside of India) demanded Canada cease any cooperation with India.

The murdered man was known as an outspoken “Khalistan” separatist. But that pipe dream bubble burst years ago and he was just a noisemaker. And assassinations of expats is much more in the style of Americans or Israelis. Strategicka51 says India does have a squad like this and may have gotten caught red handed. He also posted that Five Eyes confirmed this hit. I think that is disappointing to see this source possibly blow up on me, but that FE doesn't go around typically confirming such information in such a public way. At least not without vast rationale for such a clumsy method of severing diplomatic ties with other countries. Asymmetric warfare just went hyperbolic if that is the case. Meanwhile, Canada has now alienated three of our original BRICS states. Having already tied up with China and Russia. If they get the full house with Brazil and South Africa, maybe we can put this one to bed.

◾More delish speeches from the UN◾

We are going to wind this up with some additional great commentary heard at the UNGA. I can't personally attest, but it is quite possible that the UN hasn't experienced this much criticism since its founding. Our Global South team rocks!

Presidents of Morocco, South Africa, Namibia, and Cuba all expressed support for the self determination and independence of Sahrawi and Palestinian peoples.

Presidents of South Africa, Ethiopia, and Kenya described as an absolute necessity to reform the UN, providing AU representation on the Security Council, lift sanctions without precondition, and provide for multilateral solutions to economic and security concerns.

Leaders from Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea made strong pleas for action to rescue a world teetering on the precipice of climate catastrophe and struggling under the weight of an outdated and unfair global financial system. Each made individual requests pertinent to their needs but were really battling on behalf of the countries of the world facing similar challenges.

I think this is enough to get the escalation theme firmly fixed. I will provide updates on these and our prior stories in a linear series style as warranted. Stay on board this train; I think the speed is about to pick up. But it has definitely left the station.

Go to Part 3.

Back to Part 1.