Escalation is Everywhere

Entering a Fall Twilight Zone?

Well, here we are, on September 24, and as advertised, escalation is off the charts relative to recent levels. The extremity of this can only really be listed below for viewing with an eye to the future. I will be following all of these situations but not minutely, as military assessment is not really my purpose. Several previously and current quoted sources are excellent at that, but we are about the overall war and the exodus of humanity from that. So, let's begin - this is basically all happening in just the past three days.

Armenia - Azerbaijan

◾UNSC meeting regarding Karabakh resulted in no resolution or statements.

◾This Pepe Escobar report has a very good description of the combined kinetics and infowar/soft power blitz offensive waged by Azerbaijan. Doesn't say directly but implies that they had help designing it. I did see rising a dozen bulletins to Armenian citizens assuring their welfare and safety if the ceasefire was honored. Also this report of Azeri protests at the UN in Brussels, claiming they “were fighting separatism” just like Ukraine! (full spectrum info mastery!)

◾After the tendered capitulation, 10,000 Artsakh soldiers continued to defend Stepanakert, claiming they would do so to their death. Ultimately, their commander, General Karen Javalyan, did die in this effort. They ultimately surrendered, though. These are some of the arms (video) they had left. A presidential aide said “three days into the disarmament that Karabakh was one of the most militarized areas on earth. This SouthFront report has more details and assures that diplomatic military attaches from numerous other countries are witnessing the process. Azerbaijani troops monitored a round of document burning in Khankendi.

◾Despite continuing protests and calls for Pashinyan’s removal, he is desired to remain there by all parties except Armenia. (So any coup attempt will not be a “good” coup.) It is alleged that US Ambassador Christina Quien called opposition leaders to a 15 minute “discussion” where she advised them to “let off some steam for up to a week but then shut up”. Eight members of a group called “Crusaders” were arrested hypothetically attempting a “bad” coup.

◾Based on statements by the Stepanakert authorities, local Armenian residents are leaving the city.

(aka Ethnic cleansing 👆) Former Armenian military forces after completing disarmament will be bussed back to the borders in two directions.

◾An official request from Armenia to the UN AG asks for removal of Russian peacekeeping forces and replacements from France and the US. (cheeky) Blinken finally chimed in with a sharp criticism of Azerbaijan (what else), and called Baku's actions contradictory to “settlement of the problem in the region”. Privately, the Americans are big mad at Erdogan. A US Congressional delegation went to Yerevan…but it seems no response came from the EU. Except a meeting of an EU rep with President Aliyev at the UN and to increase gas imports from Azerbaijan. Lavrov stated that Russian peacekeepers will assist in every possible way to achieve peace in the region. Azerbaijani and Iranian FMs met at the UN meeting.

◾In the comic relief section, Georgia offered to mediate the negotiations.

◾Local Karabakh activists are quoted pragmatically as capitulating to the betrayal by Armenia, who used them as a pawn for these three years. They advise Armenians to turn their eyes eastward if they find they need a savior nation. (note: this is reported by an Azerbaijani TV station which presented no alternative views. The exodus video above presumably were those.) Now Armenian Karabakhs are claiming to want to go to Armenia. Russian forces will escort any who wish for that.

◾Turkish FM Hamas Fidan tossed out the Zangezur corridor issue in the waning moments of all that. And Wagner posted that Erdogan claims Pashinyan knew of the impending hostilities in advance. (<= this claim was leveled at Putin as well, who denied it. Origins of these notices are presumably President Aliyev.) Then, Turkish media write that Armenian forces from Karabakh have been transferred to the Zangezur corridor region, where a major Armenian-Azerbaijani war is expected.

◾This is not the only but possibly the best explanation of what could come next in the eventually sense. Only Iran and Russia have any interest in an independent Armenian state. Western bleating notwithstanding. But it is just that manipulation that could trigger another conflict. This is not likely to be an immediate threat but bears consideration. However, it appears Turkish media started that rollout above and it has spread widely. The forces Azerbaijan are transporting back to Armenia are possibly being located to the Syunik region in anticipation of an immediate war over the Zangezur corridor with Azerbaijan. Iranian forces were already close by due to the Iraq deadline last week. These two entities would need ironclad assurances on opening that corridor. Erdogan is certainly fanning the flames, but that meeting in NY between Iran and Azerbaijan FMs seemed way cozier than war planning. This may be Western requested posturing: coup prevention measures or courage for Pashinyan. Well enough speculation. We will see.

Africa

◾This is a terrific visualization of what lies ahead for our Sahel trio.

We know that Russia has made preparations to augment their military capacity to fight these threats. Which as we have reported before are assisted by French Intelligence DGSE. Proxy wars abound.

◾DRC asks at the UNGA to begin withdrawing their MONUSCO forces this December instead of as planned in December of next year. This is due to 24 years of mission failure. Meanwhile, in Somalia they are asking the UN to keep AU forces there due to recent upticks in violence from jihadi forces. CAR President Touadera, in his speech at the general debate of the Assembly, accused Western countries of having provoked the migration crisis by plundering Africa’s natural resources and ruining the continent as a result of slavery and colonialization.

◾If you heard anything about an IL-76 plane crash at the Gao airport, there have been at least 4 versions of this story. This the the one I believe to be true. It was a MINUSMA (UN peacekeeping force in Mali) aircraft used to transport military supplies to the Malian forces.

◾In Sudan, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has been busy. He warned that the war could spill over the country's borders. And that he was open to a ceasefire and peace talks, but that RSF refused. (RSF offered weeks ago for talks that al-Burhan refused.) Then on his way home, in an airport in Shannon, Ireland an “unscheduled” meeting happened between him and Zelenskyy. This report claims that Ukrainian Intelligence has been collaborating with the Sudan leader recently.

Hemeti Dagalo gave an in absentia address to the UN General Assembly, at which his rival, Commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, spoke in person. First of all, he proved to everyone that he is alive and well, and rumors about his death are groundless. In his speech he again accused the Sudanese Armed Forces, with which he is at war, of all sins. In particular, he stated that Al-Burhan is interacting with the Islamic State organization and also presented his vision of resolving the armed conflict in his country. (Sudan is somewhat of a gray zone for me. On balance I believe these two men care deeply about their country. The associations coming forward may be our first good clue as to clarification.)

◾The head of the US Africa Command AFRICOM, Michael Elliott Langley, the US special envoy to Libya, Richard Norland, and the charge d'affaires of the US Embassy in Libya, Jeremy Brent, arrived in the city of Benghazi in eastern Libya. Michael Langley met with LNA Commander-in-Chief Khalifa Haftar, during which he praised the LNA's actions in the fight against terrorism in southern Libya. Unofficial Libyan sources indicate that the meeting discussed the creation of a new unified government in Libya, which would lead the country to the first democratic presidential elections in its history. (Sounds lovely; let’s get something while we're distracted by all this human tragedy.)

◾The leader of the Tuareg factions in Mali called on ECOWAS “to cooperate in all areas that help in establishing security and stability in the Sahel region”. The leader of the so-called Coordination Directorate of Azawad Movements Al-Gabbas Ag Intallah wrote about this on his social media. The post appeared in response to the decision of the authorities of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to unite to create the defense Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

◾President George Manneh Weah has told the UN General Assembly that the Liberian Government has taken all necessary measures to ensure free, fair, transparent, peaceful, inclusive, and credible elections. (So reassuring.) Madagascar has an election coming up on November 9. The incumbent, Rajoelina, who is running again has personal problems, primarily the discovery he and his wife have dual French citizenship. But also by law, he must resign and allow either the senior Senate officer or Prime Minister to finish his term during campaigning. His response to those problems has been to block every opportunity for opposition candidates. Those recently went to the Constitutional Court over the very evident issues, calling the situation an “institutional coup d’etat”. Their case was dismissed, finding no bias. (Very reassuring!)

◾The UN and Ghana jointly announced on Friday that December's UN Peacekeeping Ministerial meeting will be hosted in Accra, at a time when some African nations are questioning the value of having ‘blue helmets’ on their soil. (Moar reassurance.)

◾As you might have supposed, the UNSG rejected the delegation sent from Niger and recalled their permanent delegate. The Niger delegation accused him of collaboration with France and ECOWAS.

Since this is stretching the limits of how much we usually report, I am going to save Canada/India, Syria, Sevastopol, and some miscellaneous stories for a second installment. Tomorrow or Tuesday. Happy Fall, y’all!

Go to Part 2.