Escalation Update Extra

Ups and downs and all arounds...

Today we are just (mostly) revisiting our recent stories for updates. A number are clearing; a few are clouding up (climate themes are so in vogue now!). These are in no particular order.

◾Armenia - Azerbaijan◾

This story dates back before the one day war, but I have been watching for the next steps. Remember our American troops that were “practicing” with the Armenian ones starting on the 11th? Seems that two American generals joined them on the 15th, one of whom was in Armenia back in April. The US Ambassador came to this party, too. All for a single set of exercises with a single peacekeeping brigade. (Of course.) Contemporaneous with this event, Acting Asst. Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Yuri Kim published a statement calling for expanding support for Armenia to counter Russia, Iran, and China. (Since nothing in the statement was anything “new” it was likely a message or marker in a prearranged operation.) This report (whether true or not) issued a few days earlier, provides justification for all this interest and intrigue. (How the game is played.) It purports that Armenian airlines transport Iranian weapons into Aleppo and Damascus, some of which are then sent overland into Lebanon.

The channel that published the above Israeli-based report, added that an Armenian airline was sanctioned by the US Treasury and that a Syrian airline active into Yerevan since the 2020 Karabakh war was reported by Turkish media to have possibly transferred thousands of Shiite militia operatives into Karabahk in March of this year. (Do you think this could be why all this activity? The Americans knew but did nothing? Hoping for a big win for Armenia? And a quick exit?) It may also explain why there are still pockets of resistance being fought today. And why we see the big and immediate exodus for Armenian Karabakhs back to Armenia. There have been detentions of Armenian resistance leaders at the borders, but no mentions yet of any other nationality militias. Would they keep that under wraps for another day? …. (I think I would!)

Also on the 11th, Michael Rubin wrote a piece, reprinted everywhere, with all the customary blah blah bleating. But blazoned in the headline and text was a tacit admission that Blinken’s language to President Aliyev was wishy washy and thus “green lighted” any response Azerbaijan chose. US policy making at its most inept. (Or deliberate.)

On the 25th, Yuri Kim and Samantha Power, USAID head, arrived in Yerevan. (The same day Presidents Erdogan and Aliyev met in Nakhchivan. And Pashinyan met with Senator Gary Peterson.) USAID will ostensibly be there to provide assistance to refugees but will probably make a few bucks for other ventures while attending to things in Nagorno-Karabakh, where now less than 5000 Armenians remain, but who will be leaving very soon. (What refugees will need help there?) Armenian activists weren't impressed; her platitudes were met with “Yankee, go home, if you don't sanction Azeris”.

This report reprinted on Southfront offers a lot of unfortunate narrative blowing but towards the end makes a few good points. First that Pashinyan has now produced the exact result he was placed in Yerevan for in 2018. To destabilize the region and provide a springboard for Georgia being next. Even should he now be replaced, the next PM would be a carbon copy with only a new face and name. Protests, still ongoing, contain a sizeable faction of even more avidly pro-Western advocates. (Naturally.)

And Turkish media report that a NATO-US (there's a difference?) “intervention group” will be stationed in the South Caucasus region to “coordinate American humanitarian assistance”. (Golly gee whiz. No kidding.) Guess they just don't trust the UN mission invited to inspect the Karabakh area invited by Azerbaijan. As soon as they can secure the area.

Our favorite French FM Colonna announces a military attache for their embassy and a consulate in Zangezur. Russia also intends to add a consulate in Zangezur next year. Armenians in Lebanon protested at the Azerbaijani Embassy. Their second such protest recently; police used tear gas and had to push the crowd back. And another against Turkish diplomats was seen in Los Angeles.

Coming up this week are feverish Armenian legislative actions towards ratification of the Rome Statute. (What's the hurry?)

Infantmilitario wraps this up with the observation that Yuri Kim's descent on a country always coincides with US takeover of control. Is the next stage Victoria Nuland, harbinger of mayhem and anarchy to achieve regime change?

◾Serbia◾

The false flag nature of this attack is pretty much being openly admitted now. But just for completeness we'll lay it out. Lavrov gave a towering speech at the UN where he stuck a fork in this situation. He noted that the sad neglect to implement the Minsk agreement regarding Ukraine is being repeated today in Kosovo and Serbia. Southfront noted the split second timing of the defusing of the Armenian conflict and the startup of the Kosovo one. And the commonality of Western intervention.

Southfront also did a very good map and timeline if you want to get the first 24 hour view in a very compact template. A couple of days later Vucic asked for KFOR to take over the investigation from Kosovar authorities -later seconded by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Mica Dacic - (and jumping past EULEX, per Pristina dogma, and which group later was banned from being included in any area of the operation). The Russian Ambassador to Belgrade states that the West empowers Pristina to commit such atrocities. Kosovo police release a list of seized military items.

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, Dimitry Peskov: There is no doubt that the bloodshed [in Kosovo] is a direct consequence of Albin Kurti's course to incite conflict and cleanse the territory of Serbs. KFOR showed up with 15 armored vehicles and a Humvee outfitted with an experimental LRAD, or theoretically nonlethal “sonic cannon” device, whose purpose is battling civilian populations with waves that produce headaches, nausea, disorientation, vertigo, but not infrequently permanent hearing loss. Death is not excluded. (God bless America.) Because this wasn't enough.

⬆⬆ Ethnic cleansing of Serbs in KiM ⬆⬆

On Wednesday, The Kosovar Prosecutor's Office has released four Serbs arrested on Sunday during the clashes near the Banjska monastery, citing a lack of evidence coming from Kosovar police.

Then Serbs asked KFOR and EULEX to release drone footage of the killings of Serbs in Banjska, in order to confirm or refute suspicions that two Serbs were killed in cold blood at close range after they had surrendered. So far there's been no responses to the request. But today, the KFOR commander, Italian Gen. Angelo Michele Ristuccia, issued this statement: “The authorities of the so-called “Kosovo” took a number of steps, which led to the emergence of crisis situations in Kosovo and Metohija.” He further said that everything that happened in Banjska on Sunday “is not a turning point, but the development of the situation between Belgrade and Pristina, the main cause of which is the mutual distrust of Serbs and Kosovo Albanians.” Also, he added that KFOR “did everything possible to deal with the crises that arose as a result of those decisions made by the Pristina authorities.”

As far as EULEX is concerned, another interesting piece of info was produced and that is that yesterday morning, during the auction and preparation of the raids in KiM, at the monument to Prince Lazar, the so-called FIT (Kosovo police) special forces used EULEX's ambulance. Therefore, the EULEX sanctity was full of so-called FIT special forces. It was also verified information that the shippers used KFOR vehicles as well.

Also yesterday, Aleksandar Vučić and the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, met in Belgrade, as part of the initiative to establish the strategic security of the region in the fields of energy, water supply, food industry, and human resources.

Meanwhile, for the past few days, Serbia has been moving forces to the borders of KiM. This morning XF (Joachim Flores) posted this:

Guess we'll see what happens. (Wonder if that had much to do with the court releasing some of the arrestees?)

◾Africa◾

This actually is a 21st and 26th event but the news was either withheld, or slow released until a few days later. The initial reports only claimed that Burkina Faso had repelled one and then another military coup attempts. Further reports claim they arrested four militants and were seeking two more (purported to be mostly special forces members). Today marks the one year anniversary of the Ibrahim Traore led junta replacing an eight month coup junta that gained power in January of 2022. Other reports say SM traffic in Burkina Faso are discussing Allessane Ouattara, leader of Cote d'Ivoire, of having been behind the effort.

Coincidental to this event, the privileges of Jeune Afrique were suspended. They had written a pair of articles intended to “spread chaos” (also the charges levelled at the coup plotters) over the preceding four days. This publication is held to be a pan-Africa genre, and may bear future watching.

Niger would seem to be in an upward trajectory with the capitulation of Macron, but this post from Arab Africa bears watching (and consideration):

🔸🇳🇪🇫🇷🇺🇸 With the departure of the French diplomatic mission and the gradual withdrawal of armed forces from Niger, local sources are spreading information that the French-backed Tuareg rebel leader and former minister of state Rissa Ag Boula is gathering troops to attack the capital and fight against the military junta, which overthrew President Muhammad Bazoum. Significant movements of armed forces and equipment are observed in the Iferuan region of Agadez province in the north-west of the country.

At the same time, just to the south, in the city of Agadez, where the largest US military drone base is located, there is also suspicious activity by American forces. On September 28, a DH8B (N460AV) aircraft from the American airline Berry Aviation, a Pentagon contractor, took off from Niamey towards the American military base 201 in Agadez. Without stopping in Agadez, he immediately went to the capital of Chad, N'Djamena, and from there back to Niamey. Around the same time, an American C17 cargo plane "RCH115" (07-7182) took off from Agadez, landed in the Mauritanian capital of Nouakchott and from there went to the Ramstein base in Germany. Another B300C (N549AR), assigned to the US Department of Defense, took off on September 27 from US military base 201 in Agadez, landed in Niamey, stayed on the runway for 30 minutes and flew to Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), where it also stayed for about half an hour and returned to Agadez.

“Today around 1:30 am a large American military plane arrived and today when I approached their base I saw four planes, a drone, two civilian planes and then a large military cargo plane. Our authorities must be vigilant,” a local blogger wrote on September 28, posting a corresponding video.

Arab Africa🔸

Seems evident that storms are on the horizon. Which one may be in doubt.

Mali continues to be an information war much more so I believe than even a kinetic one. The outrageous claims, then no/not much substance to them upon further looks are so off the charts, I am going to do a piece especially for the purpose of demonstrating this. There is basically no news there you can really trust right now. But I will park this here for your consideration - Wagner posted this morning:

🔸 🎼 Site on the border of Mali and Niger.

Until recently, these lands were inhabited by colonialists who could afford to receive everything valuable from African lands for free. Now, the people have rallied around the Wagner PMC and will not let the “Western partners” back.

I would like to say that Africa is a more valuable battlefield for the United States and the West than Ukraine. Because energy resources are very important, especially in the current situation. In this regard, I foresee a decrease in the intensity of “aid to Ukraine” and an increase in supplies to terrorist groups in Africa. It is a difficult task ahead, but important, very, very important.

Everything will be fine, Russia 🇷🇺 ❗️

💀 WAGNER GROUP® 🔸

Just a quick general Sahel glimpse from our (still) friend Strategika51 to sum this part up:

🔸In other words, the United States ousts and takes France's place in the Sahel and forces Paris to go to war for them in the Asia-Pacific in a hypothetical major conflict...

This is totally illogical from a French national security point of view.🔸

Notwithstanding the assumption that logic appears anywhere the West already is in this conflict, this really (kind of) sums up where we are right now. Africa will become Ukraine, and the Pacific starts dress rehearsals very soon.

Calling this a wrap due to information overload if I continue. But I do believe still what I said earlier. We have turned a major corner. Everything is activating; escalation is the theme for the fall it appears. Buckle up; turbulence is likely.

Back to Part 2.

⬆⬆ Kosovo “seized” military stuff ⬆⬆