So today, we see some of our events moving at hypersonic speeds and precision. But nothing that's the scale of a single separate publication, though. So we are going to catch up to date on them all, and continue to wait for the embedded narratives to reveal themselves. They always do eventually.
The biggest narrative story by far currently on our plate is Armenia/Azerbaijan. The pair of them together are a Ukraine style proxy. Instead of NATO standing in the shadow behind Zelenskyy and their own relocated armories while attempting (pathetically) to defeat Russia, this is just a mini version where the US installed Pashinyan in Armenia is paired opposite an Israeli supplied Azerbaijan with Russia in the middle. And the sidecar is Iran. It was revealed today that the Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Defense and a delegation of security service representatives visited Azerbaijan shortly before the commencement of hostilities. Well it appears Iran had the winning ticket in this lottery. And Pashinyan is the big loser - even choosing to don a Zelenskyy fashion statement in celebration.
The Iranian FM called this a storm in a tea cup, and by 2023 standards, I'd certainly have to agree. As I write this, Armenian military forces (which Pashinyan denied were there multiple times) are disarming and removing from Karabakh territory. Russian peacekeepers will be a party at the negotiations for revised conditions going forward. And Pashinyan (who stayed under the bed the entire time except for a few phone calls - Blinken and Macron) is still in office. How long remains to be seen, though. During the one day war, there was a brief but loud astroturf citizen protest for his removal in Yerevan and another manic contingent surrounding the Russian embassy with calls for the peacekeeping force to defend them. No sign of any of that today, though. The negotiations may even be over before the screeching at the meeting set up by Macron (for kill all Russians speeches) to save Armenia at the UNGA even start.
There will likely be at least verbal fireworks down the line, though, on the further subject of the Zangezur corridor. Which the West will silently approve through the advocacy of Erdogan, who just promoted the project in the current UNGA. Anything that isolates Russia even a little is their friend.
So it looks like only a very small (barely perceptible) dent in Russia's reputational crown perhaps quickly to be filled in. No basis for (the blowing top) talking heads to even hope for an ejection of Russians or a clear field to reposition the geography of the Transcaucasus region. There are still pro-Pushinyan factions whining that the Russians surrendered the territory to Azerbaijan, although when they would have done that between getting fired upon by both sides and removing thousands of Karabakh residents to safety is unclear. At least not any of that today. Unless the US military forces probably still in Armenia get contrary orders today - pretty remote chance.
One thing I was briefly following was a military flight from Azerbaijan to Islamabad. Turns out there are joint military exercises going on with their forces and Pakistan and Turkey through the end of the month. Interesting timing at minimum. Will be looking at further if warranted.
So moving along. In the in case you missed it (our second insta-story) category, we had a mass social media release of a new African coup, this one the Congo Republic. Within a couple of hours this was refuted by officials in the country. The president was traveling to NYC for the UNGA at the time. No accident that this “release” and that “timing” coincided. Congo is between DRC and Gabon, and has likely been identified as the West's next target perhaps. The biggest question remains: revealed by who? My money is on Russia actually for this one. Perhaps they are finally doing the join them strategy of information warfare. About time, if so. No more coups in the dark messaging. Meanwhile our other near neighbors in the news now - Rwanda and Cameroon, are on notice and apparently making preparations. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda has announced a run for a fourth term rather than retire as he had previously indicated a preference for.
Staying in Africa, Malian and Wagner forces continue to fight Taureg/CMA rebels. The way this works is that a battle happens (mostly attacks by rebels). Press reports their “claims” of massive successes verbatim; the next day Mali military sources report a much more moderate outcome for them with a listing of their losses (previously not mentioned). The reconciliation between these accounts is often the length of an Olympic pool relative to a plastic kiddie one. Pretty straight up information and narrative warfare. You have to leave the MSM universe to find any balance much less facts in this story. No chance Russia gets any good press, zero, zip, nada. Accidentally or otherwise.
While we're still in Africa, let's take a quick peek at Gabon. Remember our corruption taskforce reconstituted again last week? Its first victim is Noureddin Bongo Valentin, eldest son of Ali Bongo, on charges of treason and corruption. (If only the US would take care of this same problem at home. <rolls eyes>) Five other officials and his wife were also arrested in the sweep.
Somalian rebels ambushed an Ethiopian military convoy along the border, claiming to have killed 160 soldiers and kidnapped the rest along with a large cache of weapons. These were the same rebel forces, ali-Shabaab terrorists the Somali military had the success against we reported about earlier. Sadly, it seems their intel has improved.
Our Juba mayor in South Sudan did get the sack. So no Democrats to the rescue for him.
Last stop Africa, after the recent Paris trip, in a Washington Post interview, Faustin-Archange Touadera (presumably) burst their expectation bubble by the reply “The personnel of Wagner PMC, who play the role of instructors, in addition to their instructor activities, take part in combat operations and will remain in the country.” He made it clear this was decided after consultations in Moscow. More blown heads reporters for us! And far less doubtful CAR defects to hide in Macron’s skirts.
Just to be totally complete on our outstanding stories we have some interesting Wagner tidbits to add to our previous stack. First, it has been determined that Wagner forces (NOT ones transferred to MoD!) will be returning to Ukraine in an assault capacity. No one seems to know how or from where since officially Wagner does not exist anymore in Russia. (Or does it? I have seen this report from multiple sources.)
Then a map I saw surfaced somewhere 👇
but had discounted has been reported to be a fake, by AfricaIntel. It was patently ridiculous, but still good to have confirmed. And this is a couple of weeks old but if you missed it, the August 23 event investigation will be conducted by the Investigative Committee and the Federal Air Transport Agency in “high secrecy” mode. All information concerning the Embraer plane crash will be classified as “secret”. Probably prudent.
That's a wrap for now. Enjoy the little break we seem to have been provided. I'm sure something will be breaking soon. The 23rd/24th is coming up and they love those dates!
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