So I had just gotten a short, well more medium - but who's counting? - list of headlines parked in front of what was shaping up to be the promised media bias harangue, when the short text sources on TG were saying look west, young Boomer woman. Vague, selective, but decisively persistent.
ECOWAS was getting Nigerian Senate nays, Wagner was showing up in Niamey. Surely everything was starting to look (too) stabilizing. And it was. Almost none of the below is really new, but now it is news. And that makes all the difference.
A little history/geography for reference and then we'll dig in. Prior to just recently there was a group in the Sahel (G5 Joint Force) which consisted of Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. See a pattern there? This group was aligned with NATO. Remember our Chad story of a few months ago? Assassinated President, son took over. In the middle of coups in Mali, BF, and CAR. Seems there really is a Cold War happening in Africa. Which could go hot any day now.
So we are going to build this story which has a lot of pieces and parts. For that reason we'll try to stay on a chronological path. If you prefer to skip to the end that's your call. But the story is pretty linear, IMO.
We are starting with a short piece from AntiBellum (subtitled A Journal of NATO's Threat to World Peace). I like them already. This one covers a military/civil delegation visiting from Mauritania in June 2021. NATO reported it to be successful - Mauritania is now a “committed” partner. Since 1995 NATO has been dedicated (sure…) to strengthening (fortifying?) its capabilities. Helping by replacing outdated munitions with safe depots, destroying obsolete ammunition, and training military personnel. (Apparently nada between then and 1960 independence, though, imagine that.) This time they set up four crisis management centers, supported development of operational capabilities and crisis management in public health (specifically telemedicine) and civil protection. NATO Sec Gen Stoltenberg said they “agreed on counterterrorism dialogue” - housed in border security and countering IEDs. Urged all partners to support the Berlin process and UN-led process. (This was the first occasion the SG met personally with President Ouid Ghazouani of Mauritania at NATO HQ.)
Moving along we land in September 2022 with Arab Wall. Mauritania is invited to attend the Madrid summit (Jordan was the only other non member invited), indicating interest (or concern?) of Western countries in West Africa. Supposedly Spain was the driving force here, fearing threats from the South. On their initiative, closer cooperation with Mauritania seems advisable - for NATO to (fortify) its “southern wing”.
Over an 18 month span Mauritania has become NATO's only remaining partner in the Sahel region. Went into the meeting described above in Brussels where the focus was security and defense concerns; telemed and counterterrorism were the cover story. Emphasized also the first visit to meet with the SG above and this invite seen as signs of Western “favor”. (Of course)
Then proceeds with analysis from several vantage points. We'll bullet those for clarity.
Geopolitical Factors - Classifies Mauritania as a “strategic ally” (very), its leadership role in the G5 Sahel by hosting a HQ for the group, and had succeeded against spread of armed groups in its territory (I feel sure that was designed). Has a pivotal geographic location and is a link between Africa and Europe. Now it has a wider and more important role due to the long border with Mali who is currently strengthening ties with <boo hiss> Russia. At this summit Mauritania was offered an unspecified “aid package” (always payment for control, remember?) - ostensibly for border security (see, they do know what it is), illegal immigration (that too), and terrorism (that one most of all!), which the year before Mauritania was being touted for stopping the spread of. Stoltenberg described it as support for building the defense (or offense?) capabilities of the country. Since 2010 (hang the first 16 years, must be an initiation period) the level of cooperation and aid have increased.
International Rivalry & NATO's New Strategic Concept emphasize the importance of the Sahel Region as an arena of competition for major world powers.
Russia - West Rivalry. Raging conflict sparked by (the invasion of) Ukraine lit a fire under NATO. Panic ensuing, this part is mostly about Mali and Russian influence. (But multiply that by 4 to 10 now.)
Increasing Chinese Influence in Africa. Growth, especially economic, is a source of Inconvenience to NATO (😀). Following Madrid Stoltie made it clear that member states had addressed the issues of Russia and China pursuit of political, economic, and military influence on the southern flank (plantation) countries. Of particular concern was China's intention of building a naval port in Equatorial Guinea to match the east coast one in Djibouti.
Extremist military activity in the region. Spain continues their concern that militant Islamist movement in Sahel regions cause instability that can be taken advantage of (you don't say?) especially in Mali when French troops withdraw.
It concludes with a mention that Mauritania and Senegal have a NatGas project coming online in 2023 - 2.5 million tons per year. Can't lose that deal.
Our next entrant is a Vanessa Beeley Substack which is basically a translation of a Russian report in Dec 2022 by Nikolay Dmitrievich Plotnikov. It outlines the potential for a new NATO front - Mauritania - as a NATO Alliance outpost in the region. Starts out with Western “peacekeeping missions” have failed in Mali (they have everywhere but who's counting?). The rationale for withdrawal of Western troops is universally accepted, giving way to increased Islamist activity in Mali and the much maligned PMC Wagner Group. Only the collective West have no intention of leaving. This alliance outpost (IRM), the Islamist Republic of Mauritania, will be the new base of operations for NATO. According to Stoltie, this will enable NATO to compete with the growing influence of Russia and China in the region using “economic leverage” (similar to the inhumane ECOWAS sanctions) to advance NATO interests.
In their turn Moorish officials have thus become very welcome guests at NATO HQ. Speculates that the aid package from Madrid targeting the Moorish army was for intelligence, spec ops, and ensuring maritime security.
At this point there is a screencap of an article of Omar al-Bashir (our arrested Sudan leader) with a 2015 headline stating that the CIA and Mossad stand behind ISIS and Boko Haram. A little further down there's one of our (election stolen for) Nigerian President in early March 2022 stating that weapons from Ukraine are starting to filter into the country. The articles are underneath the photos but I think they are just there for dramatic effect. See what happens when you tell any truth at all?
The text continues to state that terrorism (origin as indicated above) has been beyond any degree of control since 2014 (that year again). EU “humanitarian” projects are negligible (shocked!). Latin American cocaine and Afghan heroin enter the EU via transit routes in Africa (wonder how that happens?) with little resources to stop them. Also illegal migrations and weapons trafficking.
The West is more (I'd place it as only) interested in African resources (nothing new there, it is also true of Western countries themselves). This current situation (created by the West) is seen as a convenient time (excuse) to pivot the bloc's policy toward its highest interests. Mauritanian Minister of Oil claims his country is ready to become a primary source of blue fuel for the EU against the sanctions shifting Russian supply away from those markets. (Someone should remind them who blew up Nordstream pipelines and who currently benefits from that still. I don't think they are getting how this works.)
It concludes with the observation that Mauritania has a huge limelight it dwells under (for now). Statements from Brussels don't indicate an enviable position for them is in store. It will not only become THE NATO base for countering Russian foreign policy in West Africa, but the entire continent eventually.
Our next look comes from Atalayar from Jan 2023. They describe the scramble for Africa as an increasingly Cold War like context - asymmetric warfare on all fronts. Seeing Africa as nothing more than the sum of its resources - a geopolitical niche for interests and influence operations. Reduces Russia’s existing political challenges to pushing anti-Western sentiment and alluding to distant “Soviet era assistance”. BF and Mali are simply means to an end. To position themselves on the continent’s West Coast (Sudan?) and Sahel by pretense of development. An attempt to avoid encirclement from the east and west by NATO finding important places in the north and west (e.g., Libya and Mauritania) to provide threats to the southern flank.
The above is used to explain Lavrov’s visit to Mauritania (part of an eight country sweep) in January of this year. The first by a Russian FM since Bogdanov in 2017 to then President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz. During that tour Lavrov said at a press conference “New tools for trade and investment cooperation are expected. The process is not fast, but it is happening with strong momentum.” In contrast, NATO intensifies visits of US and EU military leaders to Nouakchott, and especially to northern and eastern border regions with Mali and Algeria. Rising Russian concerns exist in light of NATO-speak about wanting a military base here. (Ghazouani sent a telegram to Zelenkskyy on the 31st anniversary of Ukraine independence from USSR, which some took to be a sign of alignment with Western Powers.) *I know, I'm tired of diplomat speak, too!*
Lavrov was widely expected to offer heavy weapons, same as it had in Mali. Presumably he also mentioned that a NATO base would threaten the Russian company, PMC Wagner in Mali at that time. (Anyone want to bet that an obvious deal and condition like that was not discussed or mentioned, being superfluous?)
The war in Ukraine undoubtedly made the US itch to get Wagner out of Africa (how's that going?) and he thought it wasn't unlikely that the US would add Wagner to its terrorist organization list (he had more confidence in Joe's guts than Joe did). Despite close ties to the US and France, Mauritania signed a military agreement with Moscow in June 2021. As Russia begins a tour of African countries, her future is at stake (but not NATO's, of course), especially in a world where the prediction is for multipolarity. (Doesn't seem like he understands that concept well; I'm just reporting.). Meanwhile, Russia is winning over African leaders to support its SMO (or not oppose it and give in to the Western sanctions). Lavrov now exits Mauritania and continues his lecture tour (a US specialty!) to 4 other countries.
The French crisis in the Sahel is creating an unacceptable vacuum that the US does not want empty or even worse filled with Russia. Advises extreme measures to curb “violence and jihadists” (but who won't care when they reach Paris, Barcelona, or Madrid). Unlike Xi's delegates and a plethora of ribbon cutting ceremonies, Russia offers an impressive array of promising political rhetoric and numerous geopolitical initiatives and conferences (how insulting to the African leaders he assumes are deceived by that arrogant assumption). Russia exchanges slogans (still better than lectures and lies); many bilateral agreements made (including all at the first Russia Africa Summit) weren't implemented (nothing like a little COVID nuclear attack should have made any difference).
Africa has achieved political independence (BS!), now it needs to transform its economy (while drowning, burning, perishing under neo colonialistic slave masters) to provide better living conditions for its 1.3 billion people. It needs credible external partners with funds to invest, and to support large scale projects on the continent (how many are there that aren't Chinese? I know, call the IMF!).
His conclusion: The days of slogans are long in the past. Africa is still at a crossroads; but worse, doesn't know which road to take to reach a desirable destination. (How blind can one person be?)
I know this is long, but the rest are short and it needs to be added. Our next guest columnist is NATO itself. This time from the water buffalo’s mouth. (Sorry to all water buffalo). The Commander of Joint Military Academy of Mauritania, Gen. Dah Sidi Mohamed El Agheb, visited NATO HQ on June 26, 2023 (two days after Wagner mutiny and one month before Niger coup!) where he met with several Allied reps and members of NATO's International Staff and International Military Staff. He shared views on the latest security developments in Sahel and on opportunities to enhance NATO cooperation with Mauritania. NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Thomas Goffus (is that like goofus?), stated “Mauritania is an essential NATO partner (who's using rhetoric now - did they need reminding?) and a key player in the Sahel region. Our relationship is based on years of trust.” (sounds like a threat to me)
Earlier in June Gen. El Agheb visited the Royal Military Academy of Belgium, escorted by NATO Operations Division reps, where they met with Admiral Yves DuPont (you don't say!), Commander of the Academy. Discussion was of ways to strengthen (fortify, again!) cooperation with other foreign military academies. [Are we seeing a bloc of Intel diversion through these academies like the universities in COVID? Random thought.]
The Mediterranean Dialogue (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia are nonNATO members) is a partnership forum that aims to secure and stabilize the wider Mediterranean region and promote good understanding (in the legal sense, I'm sure) among participating countries and NATO allies.
The last three are short TG posts from Russia Africa channel. The first (from yesterday) is reporting that the Chairman of the National Assembly of Mauritania, Bamb Mekt, met with the Russian Ambassador Boris Zhilko and discussed issues of further cooperation between the countries. The Mauritanian Parliament is currently in active negotiations with representatives of different countries. Rep. Mekt met with representatives of Morocco, Russia, Algeria, and China (implied in that order).
The last two are videos (one narrative reporting by an unknown individual, the other reported to be a scene of violence against police) from today indicating a rise in violence and security degradation currently ongoing in Senegal. The text reads that police scatter in front of protesters in Dakar. And that road blockades are continuing throughout Senegal.
Well, that is a long text to potentially determine possible next steps. Will we see NATO start another war - this one in Western Africa? They have certainly invested very heavily in having that option. Or will Mauritania decide its interest lies in being an African nation for the next several centuries? What's a good movie without a dramatized dilemma? Russia has invested in that. I doubt it can be much longer before we get a glimpse into that future. Now that we're primed to look for it maybe we can be among the first to get up for more popcorn when that scene is playing.
More to come.
Back to Part 5.