Niger and Gabon

One of these things ... May not be like the other.

This look at our latest African military coup is not going to be definitive nor will it be particularly deep. At this time it has one primary target - General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema. That's our newly selected leader of the Gabon military junta. I’m just going to say right out that I am highly doubtful of this bird's pure(r) motivations.

But rather than overstate that I'm going to lay out a timeline of sorts so you may be able to see the differences between this coup and that in Niger or our main Sahel cohort. This will cover a wide swathe of time but be very targeted so that I won't have to draw the lines for you. They will be very apparent on their own. Without further ado:

• In November 2019, Operation Mamba netted 8 conspirators of corruption around the former Chief of Staff referenced three stories below. This is just after his dismissal. Quite the Lava Jato exercise in miniature, it appears. This article a year later has Nuegma resurrecting the Operation. (Can't make this up.)

• On March 3, 2020 President Ali Bongo Ondimba replaced all of the heads of Defense and Security, appointing his cousin, Col. Brice Clotaire Oligui Ngeuma, in charge of everything, replacing Gen. Gregory Kouna. Also major police command positions were changed as well. A few replaced personnel were appointed special advisors but most retired. In Feb 2021, five of these new appointees were awarded General's braids including Col. Nguema.

• This story is from November 2020; it's the most complete account I found. Seems we have another real estate barony. This five decade family ruling position of Gabon has been quite lucrative for them. French and US “investigators” have looked at dozens of assorted charges. Over the preceding 20 years, this family has accumulated at least 7 properties in the DC metro area (especially beloved by African dictators), totalling $4.2 million, all paid in cash. And, our new coup leader bought three of them. In Maryland. 😎

• This story in June 2022, is about the trial of a chauffeur of a former Chief of Staff for Bongo on corruption charges (he provided courier services). Already an aide de camp of this official had been sentenced in this case. Both men were also members of the Republican Guard, a mono ethnic security detail for the president and his family. The last statement of the article reads: “…its current leader, Brice Clotaire Oligui-Nguema, had the mission of carrying out this kind of missions on behalf of Ali Bongo and his wife; and before that for his father, Omar Bongo.”

• Al Jazeera’s “Who is Brice Oligui Ngeuma, Gabon’s transition leader?” will round out this section and then we will get to the election/coup. They assign him position of ringleader. But late last night (local time) Sputnik posted on TG that he had joined the rebels. As if he was not part of the group before. He is a son of a military officer, trained in Morocco. After Omar Bongo’s death he was a diplomat in Morocco and Senegal for a decade. In and amongst all that he apparently was also an entrepreneur leading to his acknowledged real estate deals. No other details on that though. 🙄Apparently he was not part of the group making the initial announcement on television, but he then became the spokesman after the Sputnik announcement. And now is the group's leader. Things seemed much more quiet and orderly before this occurred:

He appears at the 0:11 second mark. I couldn't find him in the original TV broadcast video. There was a young man in civilian dress on the far right who should not have been in the shot. Strange coups these days.

In case you haven't guessed yet, I am seeing either a coup of a coup or more likely, what is suggested in this post by Rybar. It is so important I am going to print the entirety of it here:

❗️ 🇺🇸🇫🇷🇬🇦 USA, France and the military coup in Gabon

According to our sources in France, the government of the Fifth Republic is confused about the situation in Gabon. The fact is that the leader of the coup and part-time head of the Republican guard , Bris Oligui Nguema, is a creature of the United States.

The authorities in the United States had been supporting Nguema for several years, preparing him for the next election, in which he was supposed to win and take the helm after Ali Bongo. And not to say that this support was heavily concealed. For example, three years ago, data about the ownership of three houses in the United States, bought for cash in the state of Maryland, leaked to the online .

But why did a pro-American general overthrow a pro-French president?

The leadership of the French intelligence DGSE explains this by the fact that, according to the Americans, the French authorities are no longer able to effectively protect the interests of the collective West, including the United States, in the territory under their control. Therefore, the White House decided to take the situation into their own hands and seize the initiative from the French.

📌 Despite the fact that Macron's office again criticizes the DGSE for skipping preparations for another coup against President Bongo (who was publicly positioned as a friend of Macron), it is unlikely that the French authorities will escalate relations with the United States over Gabon.

For now, at least, French intelligence has only been assigned to deal with the transfer of Ali Bongo and his family to a prison in Morocco, and their subsequent release after the president is convicted in Gabon.

🔻In the context of such a raider seizure of French assets by the Americans, it is also curious that French citizens working in Gabon have already begun to evacuate, and some companies have announced the suspension of activities (which was not the case, for example, in Niger - the uranium company Orano continues to work there) .
#Africa #Gabon #France #USA

In that entire video and every other media visual I have seen there are only Gabonese flags. I wasn't necessarily expecting Russian ones in light of recent events; but one might have expected to see Niger or Burkina Faso or even DRC ones present. Seems more controlled or just less jubilant for only one month passing our Nigerien coup. And a lot older crowd too.

I am actually not going to go into every second of the coup today but some of the events leading up to it. First there's an interesting report I picked up back in April from RioTimes. It seems that the OPEC+ announcement on oil production cuts at that time included a share from Gabon. I recall quite a list then but this article mentions Russia and Saudi Arabia as the principals and then casually tosses in that Gabon is among the others they don't name. Odd.

Then we have this ultimate *democracy* building craziness. One week ago, two days before the 8/26 election VOA had this to say about a rule change created in July by the Gabonese Center for Elections. (It feels way more American than French directed to me.) “Political analysts say a last-minute rule change in Gabon's August 26 national elections, which now stipulates voters must select their presidential and parliamentary candidate from the same political party, poses a governance issue — if the ultimate winner is anyone other than a candidate of the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party, or the PDG.”

(So in other words, a designed coup by domestic policy. This is a color revolution, guys. Let’s see who guesses the color before it's announced! What hasn't been used yet? Cyan? Butternut? Periwinkle?)

Then we have the drama our (cooperating?) opposition candidate offered. Or was made up and attributed to them. A toss up. Seems an investigation started on the 22nd just before the election into the main opposition candidate, Ondo Ossa. Allegedly a broadcast conversation between him and another opposition candidate who had dropped out to better the chances of an opposition victory, were voicing “serious attacks on state security”. (Trump on J6, anyone? Election coup for the ages?)

He certainly followed that up in style. On Monday, he was claiming he had won the election and called on Bongo to prepare for a “transfer of power”. Prior to results being released. One feels like that is an unfair characterization of this cartoon Trump caricature, whom they are obviously meaning to be the inverse mirror here.

In other (possibly) unrelated news, we have this Wagner post from yesterday. And this one. The Polish and Baltic states borders of Belarus are closing. As in complete blockade, not just security checkpoints. Not only is that a prelude to war it has a direct impact on China's interests. This was reported on Belarusian TV. The first one linked goes into the multiple reasons why it is believed that Poland will make a military bid for siphoning Ukraine (they must not understand the Blackrock and Monsanto controls that come with). These include the number of troops they have placed there, provision for Poles to hold office there (passed June 2022), and a stated (March 2023) ambition/plan to become the world's second most powerful military. Plus they have a huge artillery, vehicular, and aircraft force assembled on the Ukrainian border (doubt that's defensive). Could this coup be a diversionary tactic? We will undoubtedly see soon.

Another rationale for this being a US coup is that China wants to put a naval port into Equatorial Guinea just next door to the north on the beach road. This could be preemptive for that reason as well. Much more strategic possibly than that first glance.

All in all, one of these things is just not like the others. So, don't get overly excited yet. We'll keep an eye out but all the optics so far paint that picture👆 described above. The actual game day events become kind of boring and immaterial if those connections prove true. It's a big war. There will be losses.

Look at the flip side too, though. Dictators with huge electoral wins are falling. Most people don't have a clue who is on the way in those swinging doors. It helps with the narrative that electoral success is no guarantee of legitimacy. Keep your powder dry and we will keep our eyes on the narratives that shape the world. Together.

Go to Part 2.