Niger v. Western World 2

Some intriguing possibilities

First a little cleanup and then the latest headlines. In the previous part of this series I misinterpreted the meaning of a translation of a Russian language source. It is an excellent source but I meant to try and verify because it seemed odd based upon recent (but not immediate recent) events. And then subsequently forgot. It has been updated there but will be included in our headlines below as corrected. Sorry about that - not a professional journalist and also experience distractions occasionally. Recently achieving senior citizen status does not help 👵.

• As described above the revision was that Senegal’s declaration to take part in any military intervention would be on the side of ECOWAS. This is much more probable than a switch away from their very pro-US government. They have been under threat of repercussions if they do not deal with antiWestern protests that have been plaguing them over the past few months.

• From Sputnik: “The West, led by France and the US, has perfectly set a trap for ECOWAS to go into total war in the region. Any mistake of military intervention in Niger means we are done,” an All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain, Adamu Garba, from Nigeria, is quoted by the local media as saying. (Interesting thought: could the military think likewise?)

• Front Page Africa: Coup threat in Sierra Leone puts Liberia’s October election on edge. Another suspect election story and possibly a looming one?

• Tinubu sends delegation to Libya and Algeria about Niger crisis.

Our two maps above tell a very big composite story. The first indicates African countries with military agreements with Russia. It is purportedly the highest photo trending on Twitter when published here. The second shows the countries in ECOWAS (origin). There appears to be a lot of overlap there. Not Senegal, but Nigeria would seem to be rather large. And unexpected. Recall that Tinubu was only recently elected and has been dogged by election fraud claims. And evident popular dissatisfaction with nearly everything he has or hasn't done so far. (Another Biden mirror!)

Then this happened today : Wagner Group TG post -

#Western media France24 reports on the conclusion of contracts between the authorities of Niger and PMC Wagner.

Is there anyone here for whom this would be a surprise? 😃#

Who was it that said a month or two, not a year+? I forget.

Anyway, perhaps this military agreement is not on his radar yet. But I suppose the Nigerian military is aware of it. So the betting is now open - does President Tinubu ditch the agreement, ignore it, or forget the ECOWAS invasion? What would Joe want him to do is the question on his mind, I'm sure.

But we pose that dilemma in light of the first of our in depth views of a very good article from DW. This is actually a really good German news outfit that uses only a very few (mandatory) Western narrative bends when necessary.

They ask a couple of geopolitical analysts the question “How likely is ECOWAS to send troops into Niger?” One's answer was very, very high. US support, increased Russian intrusion if Niger remains “unstable”, and the personal desire of Tinubu to make a mark regaining Nigeria's position as a regional leader all factor in. Tinubu stated on Sunday: "We will stand with our people in freedom and our commitment to the rule of law and not the barrel of gun. Africa has come of age." No gold star for him though, using many gun barrels against potentially a very few in furtherance of rules based order. The order has come down apparently - no more Russian alignments.

There's a fair bit of background on previous interventions by ECOWAS through a peacekeeping arm (what NGO doesn't have one anymore?), ECOMOG. In 2017, 7000 troops went to the borders of Gambia to assure the accession of the recently elected leader that was being blocked by a longtime occupant refusing to vacate. In 2022, they sent 600 troops into Guinea-Bissau for stabilization after an attempted (but not successful) coup. Also small forces were sent to Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast in the 2000s.

So far, it appears that only Senegal would be willing to send forces to supplement Nigerian ones. Neighbors Mauritania and Algeria won't, and Benin and Chad (who sent envoys earlier) won't either. Nigeria's forces are spread out over their considerable territory fighting insurgents in 30 of their 36 states.

Then Niger is a huge country nothing like tiny Gambia of the intervention above. It doesn't have many troops but they are experienced, fighting their own insurgency problems. Plus Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea have all pledged support to Niger if needed. If Wagner forces can be provided that may be all the means they need to avert armed conflict. But if the West/US insist we'll have to see if they sweeten the pot and by how much.

Our next look comes from France24. It starts out almost as euphemistically as you'd expect. France's long history as a colonial power transitioned to one of “trade relations with a military presence” in 1960. That combination seems to be causing heightened tensions in the Sahel this decade. The military presence was ejected from Mali and Burkina Faso in 2022 and 2023 respectively. And of course, Niger just added its rejection yesterday. How inexplicable that must be as they considered Niger an “ally” up until last week. But France has rejected the rejection so we'll see how that works out.

Unable to comprehend any impetus for such happenings they consulted a West African think tank for possible causes for popular support of these coups that seems to wind up cementing them eventually.

Asked if this is a rejection of the “democratic process” (i.e., democracy - which I define as any form of government that follows the rules based order), the answer was first a general text about Nigeriens unhappy with the election two years ago and especially the 12 year run of this political party. (<=sensing a theme here!). But then actually gave a gold star answer - it isn't a rejection of democracy in the abstract but rather that they've never seen what they believe constitutes democracy. BINGO. Now apply that worldwide!

It isn't a failure of the concept but a failure to apply the concept. All West African constitutions are democratic. But the protesters don’t call into question the basic principle of democracy, which is to have governments chosen by the people – however that may be – who work for the people. The problems are rampant election issues, corruption, lack of legal procedures for remedies - any of that sound familiar to you?

Didn't know you live in Africa, too, did you? We all live in the same democratic hell. Which is why every population on earth whose government follows rules based orders is protesting. And wanting to overthrow their duly selected government. The truth continues on : “Failures of governance serve as a justification for the military to seize power, and that belief is echoed among some members of the public. When you have a country on the verge of security collapse under a democratic government – as was the case in Burkina Faso – you can see why a significant part of the public support the military, which promised to restore security.”

What does that remind you of? Military is the only way ring any bells? Not absolutely a one size fits all but ever since Myanmar what has happened over and over again? Right. Military governments. Which as he points out aren't natural managers of countries but defenders. I bet we could all use a break from managers and a lot more defense right now.

The next question was about the split forming in the ECOWAS organization over the harsh sanctions. The answer was likely purposefully vague, but did acknowledge a split in philosophy mostly over the relationship with France in particular, but extending to the rest of the world (presumably meaning Western one).

I wish this representative would have speculated on Macron specifically. I have to wonder which way his current loyalties may lie - is he willing to let go of African colonies (again) if it gets him a seat at the BRICS conference table? Could he be following up on that expressed desire after his visit with Xi in the spring? Remember, he came back talking about not being a US vassal anymore. And the EU President, Michel, echoed that. Could we be seeing strands of that fabric unravelling by design…? Time tells all tales.

The last question used the term of the month. It described anti French sentiment as reaching the “boiling” point. Now there's a case for its use indeed. The answer surprisingly placed the responsibility on France for never ceasing to be a colonial power for the last 63 years. The political and economic domination still continues.

The conclusion should resonate with all:

“West Africa must turn its back on ideological quarrels and focus on its important internal projects, which are education, the economy and strengthening our institutions. By solidifying our own foundations, we will be able to better defend our own interests in the long term in a world where power imbalances are decisive.”

Marching instructions for us all. We'll call that a wrap today. But in the next few days we'll get to a few media offerings with all the narrative we've come to expect. And even enjoy (tearing it apart!)

More to come.

Back to Part 4.