Official Narrative is Declared [dead]

Form and Function Cease to Coexist

Well, the story has now become “official” which means it is now not only unlikely we will get answers to our pressing questions, but that it is likely taboo to retain those in memory much less in critical abeyance. Such ends come with most “official” declarations; officials do not like their narratives to be questioned. So while we recognize that preference we will still honor the lives of Prigozhin, Utkin, Chekalov, and 7 other mostly nameless people while taking a look at the latest information, discussion, and analysis.

First we will start with a modification on our detached wing section story. This report from Rybar/Eng from Friday claims that the wing and stabilizer sections fell into a river near the Kuzhenkino station. This video shows it being pulled out. And the picture shows it nestled among a lot of underbrush and bushy growth. No explanation is given for it being then cleaned up and transported to the field in which the first report we had found showed it. But it explains the lack of indentation if it was transported and hoisted out onto the ground. Lucky thing finding that river instead of that field.

This report was also from Friday which referred to no “decoding from the black box” as if it were known to be in the possession of the investigators. And that DNA identifications would be conducted. This report came out Friday as well with a new “repair” and/or “bomb” scenario - turbo cooler part. The story here is that a brake repair earlier in the summer was to be also replacing this part which had been purchased in the US then delivered to Moscow evading the sanctions. But it was damaged upon inspection potentially explained as having been dropped in a warehouse. The original supplier of this defective part found another one within a week (origin unknown) and it was installed then. Investigators do not discount foul play at this juncture. How many more of these what ifs do you think they had? A companion post to this one claimed the black box would never be found (Wagner has it) and there would be an end to that route. It also stated that the “delay” in DNA identification was because no one in any of the families could be found in the country for matching. Surely Wagner kept records of that in their files for just such an occasion. And that the turbo cooler story was unnecessary stuffing. Ditto on all from me.

Two last technicals (of a sort) pieces also from Friday are just for completeness and we will move along to some other analyses and narratives. First we have a new video from a different source of a 5 second section of the falling plane. Presumably that man is also making sure we know about the pops.

In my opinion the sky looks different to me but, so what? Then we have a report that indicates the plane was within three (count them) overlapping radii of S-300 missile defense systems that happened to be activated during the flight time. How convenient. Again.

Surely by then we would have had a report of one actually firing missiles at an approaching threat. Unless that's so frequent an occurrence now they aren't keeping track anymore.

So the balance of today's report will be mostly chronological from source but I'm going to start with more analytical and opinion treatises first then wind up with our ever expanding narratives. The first section is actually in three different posts featuring a single political scientist, Sergei Markov, who on Thursday commented on the widespread popup memorials to Prigozhin and Utkin all over the country, claiming that cannot be counterfeit. On Friday, it was that he did not understand why the Wagner press office would not have had much information pertinent to the investigation and why it wasn't being tasked with providing it. Then yesterday, he weighs in rather snarkily that a funeral in St Petersburg is a choice of weakness; Bakhmut is clearly the one of strength in the pairing. Perhaps, like me he feels the family scenario funeral should actually have a body to bury.

Also yesterday, only because it's about the subject of funeral options, Russell Texas Bentley chimes in that an overly grandiose patriotic affair could lead to anti government sentiment and ultimately negative political results. If however, a public funeral is banned, then many will assume the Western news sources are correct in blaming Russian authorities, including Putin. The third option, is that the authorities hold the funerals providing ‘modest' patriotic demonstrations with appropriate slogans. What weight given to a patriot-traitor-oligarch. And associates. That last one comes with the qualification that it had better work.

Going back to Wednesday, we pick up an analysis from Rybar/E that unfortunately the Russian population has already assigned blame. No matter who the MoD puts forth, the people will remember the Shoigu/Prigozhin public conflict and, while never voicing it, will always believe the MoD did it.

From Friday, we have a new channel making its debut in my articles - Prigogine 2023, a little cheeky, but still some interesting takes and info. We'll start with a poll asking very simply if you believe Prigozhin is alive. At the time of this writing yeas were 3-1 from 112,400 votes cast. We also have a post Saturday claiming several points of why the author does not believe the current narrative. Top of the list to me, if true (and since it's SOP for governments and militaries alike, I had already considered this) is that all three of these Wagner leaders had never flown together on a single flight before. Next one I like is that Prigozhin “died” in a plane crash before [Congo 2019] and also was “buried” in August of 2022 when the HQ he was in was blown up by Himars, presumably in Ukraine. Story goes that he disappeared for several days then turned up and helped look for his body. The trifecta is that whatever identification they claim to have found this time is very easy to obtain.

It continues with some expanded information straight out of a spy novel. Remember our two flight paths for the second plane? He claims the one flying from St Petersburg to Moscow is accurate and that two Central African Republic citizens were on board. Other information in this section include the disguises and other passports found in Prigozhin’s office in June, crypto currency purchases by other non Wagner entities associated with Prigozhin, three German plastic surgeons at a top medical facility in a closed village in CAR near Wagners, and finally a post Baku (Azerbaijan) flight to Turkey for our second plane. Presumably also with no passenger manifest. From Turkey one can disappear without a trace. You could make an entire new Wagner Group from this post.

I'm not always the skeptic even if I am usually. Should that gaggle of expanded information around the bits and pieces we already found be in any few particulars accurate, I think there is reasonable substantial evidence that we have a created narrative going on. How 2023.

Our last contributor from Sunday is Strategika51 with several brief posts. This one is very brief and obvious - whether dead or alive, Prigozhin and his partners are offstage now. He counts the identification reports as war propaganda since Russia is at war with the US and NATO. He adds another that Romania is the home of NATO logistics and is the theater of a relentless shadow war whose latest victims were the Wagner leaders. Another watching opportunity.

Well that concludes the opinions and analysis, at least for now.

Narrative. Narrative. Narrative. You can almost write them in your sleep which is the easiest way to recognize them. I have debated whether to include this because too much isn't specified about it. But because it is Prigozhin himself I will place it here qualified that its value is unknown. It's from our new TG channel and posted Saturday but has no date or location given for this supposed speech. The translation of the provided narration is by TG.

“If these screws are not adjusted today, the plane will crumble in the air,” Prigozhin on the state of affairs in the country.

“Today we have entered the boiling point. Why am I being honest? Because I have no right in front of those people who will live in this country further - they are now lying. Better kill me.

But I will not lie, I must honestly say that Russia is on the brink of disaster. And if these screws are not adjusted today, the plane will crumble in the air.”

All I can say is if ever I have the opportunity to make a farewell speech before my upcoming scheduled death I hope I can remember that one.

I’m going to insert this here as well, because honestly I don't know what it means. Perhaps some of you are or know anime fans and can clue me in. This was posted as coming from a major Wagner channel (not the official recruiting one I follow) and I will let it speak for itself. It was the death announcement post for Wagner Group® on TG.

In other narrative news, I seldom report using total rags. This time is an exception because this will be the mainstream version everywhere. This is just my first and hopefully only contact. AllAfrica reposted Daily Maverick's 8/23 retelling of every piece of Western propaganda attributed to Wagner for almost a decade. It is essentially a black eulogy. AllAfrica styled it as saying that Wagner's activities may be curtailed in the future. Which is the one place (or time) that DM didn't go. This narrative is dead, done, never to be resurrected. Once this story has a week or two to poison every well it can find the official story will become sorrow that all those egregious crimes can't be prosecuted now. See how neat that's gonna work out for Larry, Curly, Moe, and pals?

Also, recently found but from Thursday's news is another flight I should have been cognizant of earlier. It seems an IL-76 flew from Russia to Mali just after the plane crash on Wednesday. At 19:00 (about an hour and 40 minutes post crash) it took off from Zhuskovsky airfield, refueled in Damascus, and landed in Bamako on Aug. 24. What's that about?

Moving to Friday we have a couple of statements from Lukashenko. First, is one when asked about Wagner leaving. He responds that Wagner lives there (in Belarus). And will stay as long as needed. The other was telling that he had warned Putin about a possibility of assassination on Prigozhin that he had obtained from undisclosed sources. Putin passed that information along. I'm sure all of that is bankable.

Skipping up to yesterday we have an important recap of the desire of Russia MoD (at minimum) to absorb all the PMC armaments and assets and reassign employees into either a “volunteer corps” or the waiting arms of Redut PMC, a remnant left from after June 24. Pressure is being placed on Assad in Syria and Haftar in Libya to cooperate in shepherding these PMCs into desired channels. From other places pressure is applied to individual and groups of mercenaries by not allowing transport planes to land in the usual transfer/refueling zones or return to Russia. We will wait to see how this plays but the mass of forces may choose to remain where they are and transfer the assets to local authorities (i.e., Iran) before the RF can grab them. Interesting scenario to be sure. AfricaIntel confirmed that this was in fact happening later that day and that Dep. Def. Min. Yunus-bek Yekyurov's delegation will continue its Africa tour, so presumably the efforts to decrease Wagner influence on the continent will continue.

And of course last but certainly not least is the official announcement that all ten people reported and presumed to be on the Wagner flight Wednesday have been identified and declared deceased as a result of the crash. I’m betting the whole investigation closure is in single digit days from here. The likeliest narrative that is remotely saleable and shuts the story down is where we are headed. A 16 second video contained the announcement from an Investigative Committee spokeswoman.

I get the distraction that Prigozhin and Wagner had become. And the negative publicity, however overstated and even made up, is not in Russia's or Putin's interest right now. Can't say I'm a fan of this manner of handling it. But we are in a world changing war. Narratives rule and nothing can get in their way sometimes. We will keep an eye trained on followup stories but pretty much this is the end of this particular line. If the narrative unravels, well that would be a different story.

And this morning, this montage popped up in case you want the mainstream Western fascination version (although classifying Prigozhin or Wagner as a Ukraine War story is actually a weak attempt to limit the vision and boundaries, IMO).

Whatever you think happened may actually have. What they are telling you happened is the least likely of all the available scenarios. If you think that every one of a couple of dozen (by now) security breaches by these consummate professionals were simple oversights and understandable mistakes, that's why the bridges were for sale. If you believe that enough narrative fodder for whole farms of media piglets just happened to fall from the sky along with a crippled plane, well I believe that's called not paying attention. (If you prefer beachfront property in Niger, let's talk.)

This narrative is way too much like COVID, whether -19 or -23. Just a nightmare to scare the kiddies and a host of fabrications to cover the truth for most adults. But we aren't gullible, at least not anymore. The next narrative is already beckoning even if we can't see it yet. We will target as many of them as we can that help illuminate this war and its many fronts and fissures.

Thanks for staying on the ride with me.

Back to Part 2.