I have floated this theory in a few tight circles this morning and no one is buying very much of it much less the whole enchilada. It is still my opinion though and I have just seen the headline that Putin and Prigozhin have agreed to some unspecified thing. Before I even find out what it is I want to list my mental meanderings for the record.
Pretty much goes like this.
Appearances do not mean nothing. Nor everything either but we land on the low end this time. This looks very suspiciously like a typical Western regime change coup. Since no one besides them really ever does one we have assumption #1. CIA/MI6/Mossad - take your pick but I consider them the Larry Curly and Moe Siamese triplets.
I have repeatedly been of the opinion that all of Prigozhin’s prior rants were theater with a purpose. And a purpose that Putin was intimately aware of. Approved by Kremlin if not designed by Kremlin. That has been a standard public position pretty much since early April. And I still believe that.
Prigozhin is much more to Putin, Russia and the world than the chief liberator of Artemovsk. The work his forces are doing in Africa is indispensable. Putin did not leave that to him by being stupid or overly trusting.
Prigozhin is the ULTIMATE IDEAL WEAPON for a psychological operation. He's brash, he's recognized everywhere, he's basically fearless, confident, the list is very long. Perfection in a big package for psyop purposes.
Putin has trusted him for many years. I simply do not buy that he is a person who trusts readily or easily. That trust is built one microgram at a time. It just can't be bought or sold except over the most existential scenario. You don't ever jeopardize a relationship like that. Even over principled disagreement.
Those are my basic assumptions that led me to this theory described below. Plus that it's 2023 and we are in the war to potentially end all wars.
So here goes. Larry, Curly, and Moe have known for quite a while that they could not win a military engagement in Ukraine. While continually hoping for a better field outcome the few brainwaves they collectively put forth have had them knowing for a year or more that they needed a different opponent. So who would be the closest ally of Putin to turn on him. Obviously Prigozhin.
They recruit him probably with some ease. He manages to get a plum position where he is right there and taking directions from both sides. He starts making dissatisfaction noise in March. Since Putin has always been aware of this operation when Prigozhin starts crying he says nothing. Basically neither do the military generals in the mix either.
Continuing this mode for a while, the time comes close for the rebellion. Media spreads misinformation like crazy about Prigozhin having political ambitions (hogwash), being at odds with Putin and generals (double hogwash), and he himself records crazier and craziest videos on SM for world consumption (triple you know).
The time for regime change gets closer and Ukraine war wizards are getting pushed to need to enact a FF event at the ZNPP. Putin tells Prigozhin this weekend is good for me and the March begins. News flies everywhere. Putin is gone to safety. Lukashenko also is removed for same. No nuclear command structure. Meanwhile Prighozin drives 650 km basically without a scratch or conflict on the road. Most of the pitiful attempts to provide them are the worst acting or CGI jobs ever.
^That is where I left things today to write my just published article on Africa. Came back out of that fog and decided to jot this down for posterity. I have mentioned before that being an amateur, with next to no following, and a lively imagination are a mentally liberating combination. So here's the end (at least immediate end of this chapter).
Putin knew all along. The Counter Terrorism Operation was started before Prigozhin went vocal but within low single digit hours of that. I'm sure the FSB does fine work. But how much easier would it be if Prigozhin had warned Putin to BOLO? For the color revolutionaries that would precede him. Why would he be allowed free entry and a road trip of 4 or 5 hundred km without a scratch? Because he was expected. And ultimately welcomed.
Triple Agent Yevgeny, working for Putin, LC&M, and then Putin again. If Putin and Prigozhin don't have the best vodka in all Russia to celebrate this coup de coup I will freely admit I was wrong. I've been wrong before and will be again. But this is a last chance perhaps to float this theory before it can be proven or disproven.
The bonus is that the ZNPP FF has been at least postponed and likely scotched. Prigozhin should have a nice library of information on who he worked with and/or for. And maybe even a huge financial bonus from one or even both employers. Putin has (presumably) still a very loyal friend and perhaps trusted confidante. And LC&M have a lot of eggs to be concerned about showing up on their faces. In one way or another.
You don't trade away Secretariat before the Belmont for a glue factory has been. Prigozhin is well aware of that.
Perhaps updates if warranted. But I don't really see more because Prigozhin’s spy career just ended. Either way.
Go to Part 2.