Some Important Background and Developments

Don't get used to this but...

I realized that after publishing my last article, with how many players are involved, what the real estate value is, and the strategic importance to continents and alliances (combined with some very common allergies to clicking links), that perhaps I should tackle a timeline/player list so you can get a sense of how important these two “nobody” countries are right now. And why you want to know.

None of my stance has changed on the agenda for conflict or that genuine scripted actions are happening with potentially explosive narrative consequences. However, selling the narrative part does really merit a better perspective. So with that intent, here goes. (Almost all of this comes from the bibliography listed before here.)

First, let's get our geography squared away. The first map is the general area but is centered on Azerbaijan with clear boundaries indicated. The second is more detailed with our Armenian and Azerbaijani landmarks.

The first thing you should notice is that a part of Azerbaijan (called the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic) is disaggregated from the main section. That little strip of Armenia border with Iran between there is labelled Meghri corridor but we have called it the Zangezur corridor and will continue to do so as it is the more common name of the two. This is one major bone of contention in the real estate department. You will also be able to see that the eastern border of Armenia and western border of Azerbaijan between these two maps have subtle but perceptible differences. So there's another long bone of contention.

Then the part inside the green line considers itself independent of both of these nations although the map maker sees most of it as Armenia controlled but Azerbaijan contained. (Nagorno-Karabakh - they had an election there Saturday which most of the planet is dismissing or ignoring altogether.) The purple area of that right side map is under Azerbaijan control but Armenia wants it back. About halfway up that common long border is the Lachin corridor, which is the one to the 120K (cut off from everyone for 9 months) Christian population that Armenia also considers theirs (and is mostly still somehow under their control). And Russia is the peacekeeping force for. Neighbors clockwise from the southern borders are Iran, Turkiye, Georgia, and Russia ending at the Caspian Sea. Pretty prime real estate. (The Caucasus is like a West Asian Maui right now if China was claiming half ownership. (Oh wait, it does - all those A listers.)

So why is this so important? Well besides that visualization often helps in problem solving, you can see why some of these actors are doing what they do - typically creating narratives. Next we are going to look back over the past year to see mostly how this developed to today and what the players want to get.

So nearly a year ago, IRGC set up military exercises on the Azerbaijan border clearly intended to war game scenarios up to a full scale war, broaching the Araks River for the first time. Then they moved them to the Turkiye/Iraq Kurdistan area. This was a message about their sensitivity to Azerbaijan/Turkish relations but also to place all parties on notice about their no border changes rule. And their interest in the Zangezur corridor. This road is currently under construction but is being developed and promoted in such a way that Iran could lose access.

As we have reported several times Azerbaijan has frequently cited the desire for “extraterritorial” status over this development because it links their two territories. Iran does not want that because then Azerbaijan (or Turkiye) could block them from access to Armenia or further on to Georgia and Russia. Armenia does not want this either so this is largely what the neighborhood is fighting about. Also at risk is a higher profile already for Turkiye in the region even without the Azerbaijani control. But at stake as well is water. The most precious and necessary resource of all.

Currently, the Araks river source is controlled by Armenia and Turkiye with downstream service to Azerbaijan and Iran. If Azerbaijan were to control this corridor, Iran would be at the mercy of Turks for their water supply. To fight this in addition to the military demos, the Iranians have started a CIA copycat regime change communication and protest campaign. But they aren't the only players with large stakes.

Locally the Armenians have a signed agreement that Russia will man all customs stations in the corridor. So, even if the control is not in Azerbaijani hands neither is it in theirs. This is seen as a political drawback that exceeds any economic benefit to themselves. Regionally, this project has close to unlimited dividends to Turkiye with a stable trade route east and west. Iran doesn't really benefit much materially but fears it could be used militarily in ways that aren't stabilizing for that part of their country.

More broadly, it would enable Russia to increase her influence in the Caucasus and thus mitigate Georgia's. At the same time they could exert some control over the spread of pan-Turkism and extremist ideologies.

Brits are the next beneficiary, due to their historical relationship with Turkiye. And lack of hesitation to throw a spoke through the wheel of Chinese or Central Asian policies. This only happens under a Russian withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh, though. Which is what the current upheaval is really about.

Next is Israel with their developing military alliance with Azerbaijan. Iran would lose their monopoly on regional transit services and have to deal with Israel on both sides of the country. As it is all but certain branches of the Israeli intelligence community would take up residence all along the border. (Perhaps a more primary than tertiary objective.)

So we have Team Turkiye-Azerbaijan and team Russia-Iran-Armenia (Israel is in it totally for themselves). This is why NATO is so hot for Pashinyan to kick Russia out and become a puppet for them (not just the US). Having hard heads on both teams makes for a more frozen conflict scenario.

But that was before and this is now. The Sochi Summit last week, first face to face for these two guys in those ten months, is a game changer. No, there's not a coup in Armenia coming from Erdogan. But there is a resumption (actually continuation) of the BFF equivalent status between Putin and Erdogan. All full of their own grain deal, surprises and setbacks for all manner of NATO schemes, and cooperation on increasingly multipolar agendas. It is almost like that 10 month hiatus was designed. (😏I believe!) Forgotten are Azov prisoners released, NATO membership for Sweden, and EU membership for Turkiye. There's a Russian built nuclear power plant in Turkiye coming online next year as an example. We are back to the old Putin-Erdogan paradigm (that never dented one). And new visions for evolution of independence and freedom in this region.

We will be watching but for now unless the West tries something crazy, I doubt that enough has changed to push this along past the same shouting stage it has been at for three years. Russia and Turkiye appear to be firmly in control. The biggest variable besides those is if Israel believes they can benefit enough to support Azerbaijan unilaterally in a very unpopular war and not rub Iran the wrong way. Also doubtful.

I wrote the above on Saturday, and have decided to tack these on from Sunday's news feed as related. First from Cradle - Sberbank clients and Turkiye are all set up on direct money transfers. EU diplomatic minister, Josep Burrell, concluded a meeting with Georgian PM Garibashvili by telling him that the dozen deficits of their EU membership application could be mitigated by a “breakdown” in Russian relations. Which he is utterly unable to perform. (They tried that already.) Joachim Flores hilariously added this snippet: Armenia is so high on Atlantium (a form of NATO) that when asked about that condition, they ask “What is NATO?”. And Middle East Spectator reports that the “Iranian Ambassador to Azerbaijan said in a cryptic tweet: "Storm in a tea cup", a proverb which basically means hyping something which is actually a nothingburger.” So they get this, too.

Infantmilitario adds that despite all American efforts trade between Russia and Mexico reached historic levels. And last but not least the Wagner TG channel clarified the rumors on “musicians” in Armenia. There are 12,000 (“reportedly”) there to perform the coup d'etat. So if (either) the US (or Erdogan) were to take a flyer they have the story line pre-written.

And here we are early on Monday. Mediterranean Man sums this up quite nicely. Two posts - first from an Iranian FM spokesman that Azerbaijan says all its “miltary activity” is usual repositioning before winter. And next his take that nothing between Armenia and Azerbaijan is worth Iran intervening for except the Zangezur corridor border issue. And that would need to be acute and immediate. Which it is not close to yet.

At least we have friends along for the ride!

Stay connected and keep watching. We will too.

Go to Part 3.

Back to Part 1.

President Ilham Aliyev posed with a map of Azerbaijan, including the Zangezur corridor, designated as Azerbaijani territory. There are jokers in the deck!