Sudan ... Balancing on a Knife
Watching the Role Flips and Flops
We are coming to a full circle in Sudan. And pretty much staring at all the same narratives as in all our other war theaters - genocides (ignored), hypothetically stronger teams (losing), diplomatic gyrations (comical), and (potential) team structures revelations. So hopefully this won't stretch our perceptions unduly.
We are going to pick up the action in late December (post a Burhan diplomacy travel tour in November) when a peace process meeting in Uganda assembled by IGAD was to have taken place. Pretty much Gen. al-Burhan agreed to a Dec. 28 date and then the wheels came off almost immediately.
The next day the MFA Djibouti advised that they could not attend due to “technical reasons”. And al-Burhan followed suit. The day after that, on December 27, Hemedti then met with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, and on December 28 he met with Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen.
AfricaIntel posited a theory about PM Abiy Ahmed getting in a few words about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and offering help if a convenient position could be reached assuming an RSF win. Ugandan Broadcasting only mentioned the end of the war as a discussion topic there, though.
In response to the Ethiopian consult, Egypt immediately advised all citizens to leave Sudan and began evacuation Air Force flights out of Khartoum and Naval ships departing out of Port Sudan. Other citizens were to contact the consulate in Port Sudan for further departure information.
On December 31, Hemedti meets with Djibouti President Omar Guelleh where he states readiness to participate in negotiations aimed at achieving a swift, just, and comprehensive peace in Sudan. On Jan 1, Hemedti resumes his tour with a premium level home base stop. Remember our 2021 coup displaced two year PM Abdallah Hamdok (and him being an assassination target in 2020)? Well he came to Addis Ababa and had a powwow as announced by a delegation of Sudanese civil democratic forces known as “Takaddum” represented by himself as chairman. Discussion centered on “critical issues concerning the protection of civilians, facilitation of humanitarian aid delivery, and exploring pathways for a peaceful resolution to Sudan’s ongoing conflict.” An agreement was signed between the two parties. But in the optics matter too category I'll just drop this here:
At this point al-Burhan emerges from the technical reasons stupor and states in an Independence Day address “that welcoming any Sudanese party that does not recognise the existing government is considered clear hostility to Sudan”. He further stressed that the Sudanese government has the right to take measures that preserve the country's sovereignty and security. “Any country that provides facilities to the rebel group is considered a partner in the crime and a partner in killing and destroying the people of Sudan.”
President Putin sent a congratulatory message on the 68th milestone of Sudanese independence and in his telegram, Putin confirmed Russia’s firm position in favor of an early settlement of the Sudanese crisis through political and diplomatic means.
A critical of both sides ‘human rights advocate’ appeared on Radio Dabanga in Amsterdam <rolling eyes> to critique both of these leaders for the theatrics of Hemedti and the maniacal fantasies of al-Burhan. (Article version here). Bottom line the people are in between watching the civil war tide roll in between them. (Nary a mention of the true roles and players behind the scenery drops.) Intermission over.
Act 2 starts with Hemedti continuing the grand tour in Kenya meeting President William Ruto in Nairobi where he was encouraged by his readiness to collaborate toward peace and stability in Sudan. And then moving along to South Africa.
🔥 Hemedti on meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa
“I had the honor of engaging in a fruitful dialogue with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Pretoria. Our discussion focused on current events in Sudan, especially in the context of the ongoing war.
During our meeting, I briefed President Ramaphosa on the root causes of the war and the factors contributing to its continuation. We discussed the enormous damage that had been caused, especially the deliberate destruction of significant national infrastructure and the loss of civilian lives. Countless people have died or been forced from their homes due to indiscriminate airstrikes.
I briefed President Ramaphosa on the significant efforts being made to end this war, including initiatives through the Jeddah Platform and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
I emphasized our unwavering commitment to a cessation of hostilities, despite the challenges posed by the reluctance of the opposing sides and their deliberate efforts to prolong this conflict.”
Muhammad Hamdan Daghlo continues to score political points.🔸
🔸 Abdallah Hamdok calls on Fattah al-Burhan for dialogue
🔺I approached Al-Burhan to convince him to accept my request for a meeting with the Taqaddum organization to find ways to stop the war in Sudan.
🔺We must not miss this opportunity for peace and must do everything possible to stop the war and build lasting peace in our beloved country. We extend our hands to achieve a peaceful, negotiated solution and hope that the warring parties will respond so that we can alleviate the suffering of our people and build our homeland on a new foundation that will mark the April 15 war as the last.🔸
🔸🇸🇩 Sudan's Burhan says 'no reconciliation' with paramilitary RSF
Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Friday vowed to continue a nine-month war between the military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), rejecting the latest peace efforts.
RSF head Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo agreed earlier this week to a ceasefire proposed by civilian groups, contingent on the military agreeing also. But observers responded sceptically in light of the paramilitary force's prior unfulfilled promises.
“The whole world witnessed these rebel forces committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in West Darfur and the rest of Sudan. For that reason, we have no reconciliation with them, we have no agreement with them.” Burhan told. #Sudan
africaintel🔸
🇷🇼 The next stop for the head of the RSF is Rwanda
“Today I arrived in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda, as part of my visits to a number of brotherly and friendly countries to reflect on the events that our country is witnessing.
Rwanda represents a worthy model whose experience can be used by the Sudanese to achieve security, stability and peace.
We are determined to end this war for the benefit of our people and rebuild our country on new, just foundations under true democratic governance.”🔸
🔸…The army promises to arm all who are ready to fight against the Rapid Support Force (RSF)… (al-Burhan) would not recognize those who support them (referring to the coordination of “Takaddum” by former Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok). The Islamic movement supported this initiative.
In support of popular resistance, rallies were held in the states of the Nile River, Northern (Merawi, Dongola), and White Nile.
It is difficult to assess the scope of the campaign, because... mobilization had been carried out previously for several months. Mass rallies in support of the army are held regularly. Mass participation is provided by tribal leaders.🔸
🇸🇩 Yesterday during Friday prayers, the imams of many mosques in Sudan took to the pulpit with machine guns in their hands, calling on the Sudanese people to mobilize in support of the Armed Forces against the Rapid Reaction Forces, the internecine war between which has been going on for almost eight months.
“We will die in the path of Allah! We will not die as cowards and we will not give up!” - the imam exclaims in the video.
🔸🇸🇩 Sudan’s FM denounces Hemetti’s PR tour as human rights violation cover-up
The Sudanese Foreign Ministry has condemned the recent African tour of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti”, labelling it a public relations stunt aimed at whitewashing the militia’s human rights record.
In a statement, the ministry accused Hemedti’s visits to African nations as part of a deceptive propaganda campaign, orchestrated with support from both African and non-African forces, to rehabilitate the militia’s leader.
The ministry reiterated the government’s commitment to achieving peace through the Jeddah Declaration of Humanitarian Principles, signed on May 11, 2023, which provides a binding legal and political framework for addressing humanitarian issues, establishing a ceasefire, and initiating the peace process.
The ministry urged the RSF to comply with the Jeddah Declaration, cease its “terrorist activities,” and cooperate with peace efforts to resolve Sudan’s crisis. #Sudan africaintel🔸
That list above was all in the first week of the new year. Most of everything since has been more of the same. Rational forward moving RSF theater followed by Army histrionics and hysteria (including cancellation of its IGAD membership). Major exceptions are these:
From the 10th, 15th, 19th (2).
🔸🤔 The leaders of the armed movements, Abdelaziz Adam al-Hilu and Abdel Wahid Mohamed al-Nur, received official invitations from the civilian organization Taqaddum.
We have received Hamdok's invitation and are waiting for his arrival to find out what he has in store. — al-Hilu
Source
Taqaddum's invitation has already been received. It will be discussed at a meeting of the senior leadership council, after which an official response will be given. — al-Nur
Source
❗️Both figures of military leaders represent serious political weights, without taking into account which one cannot talk about the integrity of Sudan.🔸
🔸🇷🇺🇸🇩 Russia and Sudan will discuss the development of economic relations today
The Sudanese Ministry of Finance said that the head of the department, Jibril Ibrahim, went to Moscow last night for a short visit to discuss with Russian officials the prospects for economic relations between the two countries.
It is noteworthy that this is not Ibrahim’s first visit to the Russian Federation. Almost two years ago, on February 23, 2022, he accompanied the delegation of the commander of the Rapid Reaction Force (RRF), at that time the deputy chairman of the Transitional Sovereign Council of Sudan, Muhammad Hamdan Daglo, who arrived in Russia to conduct multidisciplinary negotiations. Since then, many changes have occurred in the East African country. Since April 15, 2023, Daglo has been waging war against the Sudanese Armed Forces and now represents a camp opposing the official authorities. He represents the government formed by the Sudanese army. Arab Africa 🔸
🇸🇩🇹🇩 The foreign ministers of Sudan and Chad held negotiations in Uganda regarding the restoration of peace in Sudan.
This is the first meeting between officials from the two countries since November 2023, when a diplomatic crisis broke out in relations. About two months ago, the Sudanese Armed Forces accused Chad of providing its territory for sending assistance from the UAE to the Sudanese Rapid Reaction Force (RSF), which is waging war against the army. Chad responded to these accusations by expelling four Sudanese diplomats from the country, which was followed by a similar response from the Sudanese Foreign Ministry.
“Minister Ali Sadiq met with a number of his colleagues participating in the Ministerial Conference of the Non-Aligned Movement,” the Sudanese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
At the meeting with the Chadian minister, “issues of mutual interest were discussed in light of recent developments in relations between the two countries. The talks were mainly about restoring peace in Sudan.”
“Chad plays an important role as a mediator in peace negotiations between the various parties to the conflict, and is also working closely with Sudan's neighboring countries to find mutually beneficial and lasting solutions to the crisis,” the statement added.
Arab Africa 🔸
🔸🇪🇺🌍🇺🇸🇸🇩🇸🇴🇪🇹 EU, AU, US say Sudan war and Somalia's tension with Ethiopia threaten Horn of Africa's stability
The African Union, European Union, and United States called for an immediate cease-fire and constructive dialogue between warring factions in Sudan.
The groups also called for an end to tension between Somalia and Ethiopia over an agreement signed between Ethiopia and Somalia's breakaway region Somaliland.
Representatives of the groups, who spoke in Kampala, Uganda, after the meeting of an East African regional bloc, said that the two crises are threatening regional stability in the Horn of Africa.
The AU, EU US, and UN noted that the fighting in Sudan has displaced 7 million people and kept 19 million children out of school.
“It's time for them to take action consistent with their stated claims that they want to stop the fighting and meet the needs of the people,” U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa said.
#EU #AU #USA #Sudan #Somalia #Ethiopia
africaintel 🔸
Literally everything else is yada, yada RSF winning, then Sudan Army complaining. Absolutely 117% mirrors to Russia/Ukraine, Gaza et al/Israel, Yemen/US-UK. For this week so far the NGOs have now started their fourth (or fifth?) campaign on genocide stories and atrocity crimes. As in these other conflicts, these patterns are too persistent and predictable now to assign any other construct than totally deliberate. No matter what the picture looks like from our seats, it looks absolutely amazing from the director’s point of view. Hopefully this repetition of these daily stupid show scenes will break through human consciousness soon. If not, maybe, the next mirrored conflict will do it. Until then it definitely feels like the Truman Show writers are (large and) in charge.
We'll be following the action and hoping to find something more definitive in the future of a closure notice. But if al-Burhan isn't showing up on your screen looking like a Zelenskyy 2.0, fiddle with the dials a bit. The US needs destabilization in this region. So that's what we'll get. And any others necessary for the WEF agenda rollout. 2024 will be lit up like a NASA shuttle landing strip. And just as truthfully produced.
These conflicts are becoming very difficult to follow. At the core as you point out, the same players always emerge from the shadows. Thanks for this. I’m not sure how you keep so many threads going at once.