The Good Coup vs. the Rest

Gabon v. Niger et al.

In case you haven't heard, we have been instructed that there are now demonstrable criteria for “good” coups. (Disclaimer: the corporation declaring this is 42.5% owned by Nigeria's central bank. But the media has run away with the idea already so perhaps shooting the messenger is not fair in this case.) Gabon is the selected poster child (Oh, what a good little coup! See how adorable he is?) of our deranged elite so it must be true. All these bad coups (Ghana, Sudan, DRC, Mali, Chad, CAR, Burkina Faso, and lately Niger) that came before just don't have what it takes. They are not flexible, obedient, or mostly “American-Western” enough for consideration on the contest stage. (Even a real transgender child fetish a la Adam Schiff image isn't likely to help.)

Why is this important? you ask. And well you should, paduan. The simple answer is because you are about to witness a veritable runway procession of good coups. Or at least attempts. The Toddlers and Tiaras version of governments overthrown by the “right” sort of putschists. Your better governator types. If they can't beat them they will drown them out. It's one of their favorite techniques in the media sphere. And will make a critically acclaimed hit series out of the critically acclaimed debut of Gabon, The Good Coup.

We have possibly been given the heads up for the next target - Armenia. There are already narratives embedded in case something goes wrong, but the heat along the communication lines from Pashinyan to anyone who would listen to him says his days are very likely numbered already. These include Presidents of Iran and France, PM of Georgia, and Chancellor of Germany. All in one day. Those were after the Russian FM called in the Armenian Ambassador to Moscow for a conference on a number of topics. The headline was the US joint forces “training” exercises that started this week, but also listed were the launch of ratification of the Rome Statute (ICC membership), and Mrs. Pashinyan’s trip to Kiev for a wives' kibbutz. All of which violate a trilateral agreement with Russia and Azerbaijan. Detention of a pair of journalists and potentially “fabricated” arms trafficking charges against them were also discussed. Lifelong Ambassadors go whole careers without that much to talk about. Something is very rotten in Yerevan. A “good” coup would fix that right up.

While other candidates are lining up as this is written, one other is standing out already. At least to this reporter. It is somewhat inflammatory but seems to be well researched and has a very credible premise to start with. It appears that Indonesia has an election next year and their very beloved populist two termer, Joko Widodo, a true Trump style homegrown reformer, is ineligible for another term. Indonesia restricts political parties with less than 20% legislative representation from fielding a presidential candidate. (Which tells you what the field is likely to look like.) CIA front group, NED, in addition to the US Embassy staff is already fomenting violent protests of that law and others in a potential color revolution election coup effort. Definitely on the radar screen now. Jakarta was the recent host of the ASEAN FM meeting last month. And do you recall that Pentagon “lie” last week? Yeah, no coincidences. Jakarta is on the naughty list. But all electoral coups are “good” coups. Democracy is the bomb!

Other potential candidates would actually be repeat attempts on Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Any (or all) of the new BRICS countries could make the list. Even Japan if Kishida gets any more unpopular and their economic condition slides much further. Russia, China, and North Korea would be shooting for the stars but are all on the ultimate Father Christmas gift lists. There are already several we have been discussing in Latin America. Peru and Guatemala are essentially in active “good” coups. But they would love to see Cuba or Venezuela get their turn at bat. We are essentially seeing one now in Nagorno-Karabakh if the definition is inclusive of opposite the will of the people. It would not be recognized a good one though irrespective of including the performative election ritual. And then there's Ukraine. And the U.S. Again. It will soon be opening day of the true season of coups.

Just to make sure we are up to date on those pesky bad (by inverse definition) coups, here are the latest headlines. We'll start with the contrasts between Gabon and Niger. Note we've paired them for narrative contrast, not necessarily subject or temporal connection.

• CAR President Touadera, on behalf of ECCAS, meets the Gabon Junta in closed door talks. (Do you recall the initial threats from ECOWAS and all manner of “civilized” countries for Niger?) VOA waxes critical about ECOWAS crumbling over its lack of unity (in not using force) in the face of four Sahel coups, the last one being Niger.

• In Niger, US Ambassador Kathleen Fitzgibbon, after 20 days on the job, has been given 48 hours notice to leave. The EU Ambassador has issues with being denied access to the French Embassy because he refused to allow a search of his vehicle. Prior to that a Burkina Faso military uniform was found and confiscated from a vehicle exiting the same Embassy. In Gabon, the UN offers support (control) in the transition to a civilian government. The Special Representative of UNSC for Central Africa meets with Nguema.

• Al Jazeera reports that the deposed president, Ali Bongo, from Gabon, after the swearing in of his cousin is now free to travel anywhere he likes. In Niger, import of a batch of croissants has been banned to enter the besieged French Embassy without explanation. This was after media reported that food supplies were being cut off to them. And a late breaking edit reveals there was nothing wrong with the croissants as they are being distributed to local canteens. The new narrative warfare it seems. (😄)

• VOA touts experts revealing a (new?) “Dynasty” rule for why Central African leaders are unlikely to advise much less push for the reinstatement of Ali Bongo based upon the longevity of his family tenure. (Remember we were going to watch that narrative?) But points out that Bazoum in Niger, was “clearly democratically elected” which was altogether a different scenario. Then wrote the obligatory piece (of an interview with anonymous sources) about the evils abounding from the limitations US military drone operations in Niger have imposed upon themselves due to choosing to remain in the country. (Perhaps to help out during upcoming operations?)

• Gabon’s newly appointed PM Raymond Ndong Sima declared that 2 years to elections is an eminently reasonable timeframe for the needed process. (Not one comment from the collective peanut gallery on this one! But Tinubu wants to shove 9 months down Nigerien craws.) Meanwhile, no less than five different sources report US and French black op assassination intentions or planned military interventions as imminent in Niger. Rybar clarifies that these are unlikely to reach a very large operation size. (Remember our Ukrainian assassins? It all sounds like a cover story for that to me.)

Next we'll pick up a few from the neighborhood just to be comprehensive.

• Airstrikes by the Malian forces are reported in Gao region where Taureg forces declared war on them recently. Locals of the city of Burem say the terrorists were repelled yesterday morning using both planes and drones. SkyMali has halted commercial traffic into Timbuktu due to “insecurity” in the area. Jnim terrorist forces are claiming they are steps away from taking the city in the fifth week of a siege. German forces in the same region of Gao depart for home as part of the MINUSMA contingent.

• Wagner group reported last week that Niger raised the price of its uranium from €0.80 to €200.00 with immediate effect. Three days later France declared they were ceasing production in Niger.

• Burkina Faso army units enter Nigerien territory. The MoD said that joint antiterrorism needs were the reason.

I think that is most of the news updates and intentions for this time around. But we the collected peoples of the world clearly have been put on notice that “$0M€” coups are now legitimated by the experience of Gabon. And they have no intention of leaving that tool in the box for long. So let the (hunger) games begin. Open season on national leaders is now in session. And probably there's no bag limit.

Back to Part 2.