UAE

Not what you think...

Acronyms have been trendy for quite some time. They're a relic of the Roman Empire but experienced a resurgence in popularity and abundance of use in the 20th century. I can't help but feel like that is not coincidental in the least.

Today UAE has a very specific and well established association, but for today we are creating a new one. Understanding Argentina (and) Ethiopia. The emergence of this situation is because of another couple of acronyms. USA, and USA (for today's purposes also representing their Uber Satellite Associates). And then one of our most recent ones - BRICS.

Lets start with Ethiopia. We haven't looked at them much before. But one of the stories we did see was the accusations of human rights violations/genocide coming from HRW towards Saudis greeting Ethiopian refugees crossing the border from Yemen. This story surfaced on my radar in late August but was styled as having occurred beginning in June 2022. It predated our BRICS expansion list by a week. (What a freak coincidence!) The war on BRICS has been going on since at least Lava Jato, culminating in the impeachment of Dilma Roussef in 2016. (My cast of characters and damage list article is here. Bibliography below it is excellent and highly recommended reading.) They have come at the founders group for the past decade; now the weaker links (embodied as the rising candidates) are being barraged. Nonstop. Continuing on.

Then in November EHRC (an Ethiopian version) appeared in the news detailing some militant attacks on civilians in volatile regions and suggesting government intervention. The funny thing that grabs me about it was that total reports of this agency in 2023 were on a rate of about half those issued in each of the prior two years. Then are reanimated for this story that is hardly a story as that region has been fighting for many years. Very setup-y feel to it. And then ISS weighed in last week. Asymmetric warfare via NGO; must be Tuesday. And insignificant relative to the conflict in Gaza.

On Friday, we may have had a “coup” attempt via impending color revolution. Security forces arrested 97 participants of an upcoming anti-war rally. The organizers were accused of planning to launch ”terror attacks” disguised by these demonstrations. This was related to the above regions. Then on Monday:

🔸🇪🇹 Ethiopia peace minister held for suspected coup plot

Ethiopia’s state minister of peace has been fired and arrested on accusations he conspired with rebel groups to overthrow the government, state media reported.

The move against Taye Dendea, a senior member of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's party, follows a series of social media posts he has made in the past week criticising the government for failing to maintain peace in the country.

Last week Taye blamed the government for the failure of a second round of peace talks between Ethiopia and the rebel group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).

A statement sent by the security apparatus to state media said surveillance revealed Taye was in touch with rebel groups, including the OLA, with the aim to topple the current administration. #Ethiopia africaintel🔸

In the past two weeks, the country signed a memorandum of understanding with Djibouti on security and defense cooperation agreements. It is seen as a potentially big step toward the landlocked country having sea access for acquiring its own port. Since it already has a navy that would set them up for unhindered trade access. Cozy. And timely.

Of course things don't stop there. They hardly begin there. But this one was already known and on a schedule known to all parties. On Monday,

🔸❗️🇪🇹💰Bloomberg reports that Ethiopia was unable to pay the coupon on bonds worth $33 million. The maturity date expired today, December 11. There is a threat of default. Ethiopia has 14 days to resolve the problem.

Bloomberg also notes that the Ethiopian government has scheduled a meeting with investors on December 14 to discuss debt negotiations because previous talks with some bondholders have failed. 🔸 #Эфиопия

A conference for bondholders is scheduled for Thursday. Eyob Tekalign, State Minister of Fiscal Policy and Public Finance, expressed confidence in being able to develop a plan with creditors for avoiding a default. Hmmm.

Onward if not upward. To Argentina. First, of course, was the outsized election win of chainsaw wielding Javier Milei. Possibly a coup via stolen election; but at minimum one of psychological scale. We've already seen some of the intentions to decline BRICS membership. Which on its own does not really harm the overall impact on the alliance. But look at the immediate impact the inauguration had on Argentina:

🔸 The inauguration of the new President of Argentina was marked by extravagant details:

▪️ Miley arrived at the Parliament building in an unremarkable dark blue VW;

▪️ asked to depict his five clone dogs on the presidential baton;

▪️ after the inauguration, he performed an excerpt from a rock band’s song with a crowd of supporters;

▪️ For the first time, the ministers of his government took the oath of office in secret, without the press or broadcast;

▪️ the government now has half as many ministries;

▪️ the Ministry of Security was headed by a politician who could not make it to the second round of elections, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was headed by an economist who has no specialized experience;

▪️ the new Minister of Justice spent a month in prison for hiding evidence;

▪️ the Ministry of Human Capital (education, culture, social policy) was headed by a journalist who has no managerial experience;

▪️ and Miley appointed his sister as the head of his secretariat. 🔸

And even while eliminating the Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development, committed to remaining in the Paris Accord. And had a deputy at COP28 ready to roll as soon as the inauguration was done. So who knows what else he will or won't do? Campaign promises were apparently half suggestions so far. Such as deciding to continue the currency swap with China instead of trashing it. And the dollarization promise is also now on the mere suggestion list, as he levelled with the population that nothing other than austerity is in the immediate future.

🔸The Miley era has begun in Argentina - but it may turn out to be short lived. The newly appointed president immediately promised the country shock therapy - they say, this is the only way to save Argentina. But the cure may turn out to be worse than the disease - and bury the economy.

Inflation in Argentina has already exceeded 140% - and there are fears that it will turn into hyperinflation by thousands of percent in 2024 . The exchange rate of the Argentine peso is diving - Miley is expected to double devaluation from 350 to 700 per dollar. On the black market it is already much cheaper than 1000.

Buenos Aires has almost no foreign exchange reserves left - the central bank owes $10 billion to foreign creditors. It's was then that Miley simply wanted to close the central bank and write off debts. But to no avail - the reins of government of the country were seized by the team of ex-President Macri, who promised to prevent the dollarization of the country and moderate Miley’s wishes.

However, it was these guys who brought Argentina to default in 2020. They took out a huge loan from the IMF for 60 billion dollars - it is like an anchor dragging Argentina to the bottom. And there is nothing to pay with - Miley himself admitted in his inauguration speech that the country has no money at all.

So the “optimization” of expenses will begin - the sale of state property and land at bargain prices. This is what Miley did - announcing the dissolution of 9 ministries at once. As part of spontaneous privatization, a fierce struggle between Chinese and American businesses will unfold - competing for Argentina's lithium belt. While the left in Congress already wants to impeach Miley himself - and sink his presidency as soon as Miley's ratings collapse if shock therapy fails.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentine-libertarian-milei-take-presidency-with-economic-crisis-focus-2023-12-10/ 🔸

(Late breaking update:

🔸🇦🇷💵Argentina announces a 50% devaluation of its currency as part of shock economic measures

Argentina on Tuesday announced a sharp devaluation of its currency and cuts to energy and transportation subsidies as part of shock adjustments new President Javier Milei says are needed to deal with an economic "emergency."

Economy Minister Luis Caputo said in a televised message that the Argentine peso will be devalued by 50% from 400 pesos to the U.S. dollar, to 800 pesos to the dollar.

As part of the new measures, Caputo said the government is also canceling tenders of any public works projects and cutting some state jobs to reduce the size of the government. He also announced cuts to energy and transportation subsidies without providing details or saying by how much.

He said the measures are necessary to cut the fiscal deficit he says is the cause of the country economic problems, including surging inflation.

The IMF welcomed the measures, saying they provide "a good foundation" for further discussions with Argentina about its debt with the institution.

🔎 Source ☠️ Blood Meridian 🔸)

Pepe Escobar expounds that the US is pushing for a completion of Gaza hostilities by the New Year as this is needed to provide something like the IMEC proposed at the G20 in September. If this cannot become an active project they can't hope to maintain much less expand any reach into West Asia. Thus it is a destabilization race to offset any gains from BRICS expansion. And they are running out of time.

Time. The most valuable resource going right now. And every part of the Resistance efforts eat at that every hour of every day. Hezbollah keeping the second front active. Yemeni Ansrallah hits a Norwegian oil tanker heading to Israel. (The fourth catch!) That campaign is eating up time and money both. A war of attrition - who has perfected that recently? Of course, kinetically, Russia. And them and China have economically, too.

So in conclusion, Argentina and Ethiopia are absolutely welcome and would be valued members of BRICS. One gets the impression, though, that their invitations were de facto provision of easy targets for the enemy. And that took calendar assets from that enemy (passing them right over the table), while the really needed asset countries of UAE, Saudi, and Iran were virtually left until time runs out on that attack making a substantial difference.

We are getting so close to breaching 2024. Pivotal, if not penultimate temporal territory. The war fronts will be expanding and igniting; alliances will eventually light the way. We are watching a masterpiece of the Art of War. Sacrificing pawns for the board. For a time still we will have the means to continue to watch. We will be watching for as long as that is maintained. Stick around - 2024 is making its presence felt already. As is the growing Axis of Resistance. And its effectiveness.