Quick Maldives Update

The contrasts and contests continue... ....

I am going to be proactively seeking these seams to fit in updates to continuing stories going forward. This is the first one that might surprise me more than you at this point. Our first one comes only 24 days after our first episode on the Maldives and their post election drama. Hard to pick from a whole panel on that score - Argentina, Poland, and Guatemala are all candidates. But for now they are being beat, pound for pound, by the Maldives Islands.

We basically left off our saga with President Muizzu awaiting a meeting with President Xi in China. This took three days after landing, but that was no reason for not hitting the ground running.

🇨🇳 🇲🇻 Maldives president meets Xi Jinping on 3rd day of his visit to China 

Mohamed Muizzu’s visit comes amid a diplomatic row between the Maldives and India over derogatory remarks in Male made by now dismissed government ministers against Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
@geo_gaganauts 🔸

🇨🇳🇲🇻 China and Maldives sign Action Plan to build comprehensive strategic partnership, among total 20 'key agreements'

🗯“You are the first foreign head of state I have received this year, and this is also your first state visit to a foreign country since assuming the presidency, which fully reflects the high importance attached by both China and Maldives to the development of bilateral relations," Chinese President Xi Jinping told Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu on Wed afternoon at the Great Hall of the People.
@geo_gaganauts 🔸

Meanwhile:

🇮🇳 #India is now planning to develop a new airfield at the Minicoy Islands, #Lakshadweep that would be capable of operating military aircraft, including fighter jets, along with commercial ones, ANI has reported. @ResonantNews 🔸

🇲🇻 Maldives should think twice before cutting the cord and walking away from 🇮🇳India    

The once-thriving relationship between India and the Maldives is in jeopardy due to a recent row over criticism made against the Indian PM. Experts draw unpleasant implications for Maldives’ economy, given its high dependency on the neighbour.    

Meaning of India for Maldives' Defence Sector     

▪Major General BK Sharma said the defence and security sector as the most important aspect of the cooperation between New Delhi and Male;    

▪India trained over 1,500 Maldivian military personnel in the past 10 years,     

▪The Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) receives over 70% of its defence training from India.     

Economic Aspect: Maldives' Largest Development Partner    

▪ India has been Male's largest development partner for the past five years.     

▪ The Maldives is dependent on India for a wide range of necessities, including eggs, vegetables, rice, wheat flour, sugar, potatoes, onions, and even building materials and some critical products such as river sands.    

📈 Indian citizens comprised 11.2 percent of the 1.84 million tourists that visited the island nation in 2023. Indian tourists make a significant contribution, especially at this time when the Maldives' economy is declining due to COVID-19. 

👉Conclusion: India is far more important to the Maldives than the Maldives is to India, as the Maldives face an existential threat from sea level rise and India would be the first to respond because of its proximity to the Maldives. 

In terms of remarks made on Modi, BK Sharma emphasised that “these are some inexperienced ministers who lack political and diplomatic maturity.” @geo_gaganauts 🔸

Then Muizzu came back. And resumed sniping at India.

Someone is trying to be defiant

Maldives President Muizzu brazens it out after returning from China.

During a press conference he said:

"We may be small, but that doesn’t give you the license to bully us.”, indirectly hitting out at India.

Post courtesy Aditya Raj Kaul/X
@ResonantNews 🔸

🔸The pro-India opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has secured a decisive victory in the capital Male's Mayoral election on January 13, PTI reported. @ResonantNews🔸

🔸🇮🇳🇲🇻 Maldives, India Start Official Talks on Indian Troop Withdrawal: Report

The talks began at the Maldivian Foreign Ministry headquarters in Male', according to the reports.

📅 The meeting was that of the high-level group that the Maldives and India agreed to set up during the meeting between Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu and Indian PM Narendra Modi in Dubai in December, said Ibrahim Khaleel, Minister for Strategic Communications at the President's Office.

This group was discussing the withdrawal of Indian military personnel and expediting India-backed development projects in the Maldives, Khaleel added.

President Muizzu's administration has established that there are 77 Indian military personnel in the Maldives.
@geo_gaganauts 🔸

🇮🇳 🇲🇻 Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu asked India to withdraw its military personnel from the archipelago by March 15

“Indian military personnel cannot stay in the Maldives. This is the policy of President Dr Mohamed Muizzu and that of this administration,” Abdulla Nazim Ibrahim, the public policy secretary at the President's Office, said at a press briefing.

@geo_gaganauts 🔸

🇮🇳🇨🇳 What's happening in the Maldives is a battle of sorts between India and China for influence in the Indian Ocean

The withdrawal of Indian troops is an interplay of domestic politics and geopolitics, as it is a "strong statement indicating an independent position" of the Maldives, but it doesn't mean that the island nation will succumb to Chinese influence: Air Marshal M. Matheswaran.

🇲🇻 Could the Maldives do without India?

The Maldives has been a popular tourist destination for decades. If Indian tourists start boycotting the Maldives, they would obviously lose some of the revenue, Matheswaran said.

🌴 The foreign tourists and especially the Chinese tourists have no reason to boycott the Maldives, so tourism from these directions can be the way how the Maldives would try to make up for the loss of Indian tourism revenue, he added. @geo_gaganauts 🔸

🇮🇳🇨🇳 Diplomacy is not one way street & the Sino-Indian regional contestation is a reality: ex-Ambassador

▪️ Recent developments in the Maldives 🇲🇻 signify an intensifying Sino-India competition in the Indian Ocean, Anil Trigunayat, a distinguished fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) believes.

▪️Experts suggest China would try and match India's economic and developmental assistance to the Maldives, more so since Male is a signatory to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

@geo_gaganauts 🔸

🇮🇷💥🚢🇮🇱 IRGC behind attack on Israeli ships in Indian Ocean - Al Mayadeen

Al Mayadeen citing information from reliable sources, reported today that the IRGC was responsible for the targeting of two Israeli ships in the Indian Ocean on January 4th.

The sources emphasized that this attack was a response to the assassinations of Saleh al-Arouri, the head of Hamas's political bureau in Beirut, and Iranian commander Brigadier General Razi Mousavi in Syria.

The first ship was targeted northwest of the Maldives, and the second was attacked 200 miles off the coast of Viraaval, India.

🔴 @DDGeopolitics🔸

🔸The IRGC admits to having struck two ships linked directly to Israel in the Indian Ocean on January 4, 2024. One of the targeted ships was near the Maldives. Strategika51 🔸

🇮🇳 #India and the 🇲🇻 #Maldives seek a “mutually workable solution” for “continued operation” of Indian aviation platforms, the Ministry of External Affairs said on Thursday, four days after Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu asked the Indian government to withdraw its troops from the island before March 15. @ResonantNews 🔸

🔸🔴Foreign ministers of India 🇮🇳 and Maldives 🇲🇻 met

Indian Foreign minister Dr S Jaishankar on Thursday met his #Maldives 🇲🇻 counterpart Moosa Zameer on the margins of the NAM summit in Ugandan 🇺🇬 capital Kampala and said that they “exchanged views” on India-Maldives cooperation in various fields, amid frosty relations between the two nations.

They also discussed developments pertaining to the Ukraine 🇺🇦 conflict.

Zameer took to X and said that they exchanged views on withdrawal of #Indian troops.
@ResonantNews 🔸

Maldives has signed an agreement with Turkey to buy reconnaissance drones for $37 million: Media 

🇲🇻 🇹🇷 The Turkish drones are expected to replace Indian Air Force planes and helicopters stationed in the Maldives, which the island state authorities have decided to retire, The Maldives Journal reports.   

✈ Previously, the Indian Dornier aircraft were used for reconnaissance flights to detect suspicious vessels and track illegal arms and drug trafficking.
@geo_gaganauts 🔸

A 13-year-old child in 🇲🇻 #Maldives have died because of a delay in providing him treatment because the Maldivian government refused to use 🇮🇳 #Indian choppers for medical evacuation, according to the Maldivian media.
ResonantNews 🔸

🔸WATCH
🔴Chinese SPY vessel is now headed to Maldives.

https://youtube.com/shorts/PEWqGuEV8mIsi=d9y6WIKgTLZ0xuAD @ResonantNews 🔸

Maldivian Mortal Combat: Fighting in Parliament

👊 🇲🇻 Clashes erupted in the Maldives' parliament after opposition MPs protested during a vote to approve President Mohamed Muizzu's cabinet.

@geo_gaganauts 🔸

Maldives seizes two Sri Lankan fishing boats for illegal activity: Media

🇲🇻🇱🇰 The boats have been detained by the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) Coast Guard for reportedly fishing illegally within the Maldives’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

The MNDF Coast Guard received information that led to the seizure of the vessels, one with a crew of seven and the other with a crew of six, according to foreign media reports.

🚤 Both vessels are currently in the custody of the Coast Guard Ship Nooraddeen of the Coast Guard First Squadron, which is docked at Haa Alif Filladhoo Port. @geo_gaganauts 🔸

Maldives MDP parliamentary group has agreed to submit impeachment against President Muizzu.

An MDP MP told that the MDP along with Democrats have garnered enough signatures to file for an impeachment motion.
@ResonantNews 🔸

🔸🇲🇻 #Maldives MDP parliamentary group has agreed to submit impeachment against President Muizzu.

- Resolution must be submitted by 1/3 members of Parliament giving the reason
- Resolution needs the support of 2/3 members of the total membership of the Parliament

Out of 80 Parliamentarians, 54 need to support the resolution of impeachment.
@ResonantNews 🔸

That all seems like an awful lot of news, basically about a tiny strand of islands in the middle of the ocean but in the middle of an impending world war. This is a mental work in progress but there is definitely much more going on here than this dog and pony show. Unless Muizzu is a Milei clone, he can't be so stupid as to actually kick out the Indian forces without an immediate replacement waiting in the wings. Other than the scrap of Coast Guard they really have no national defense outside of what India has provided to them. Not even a helicopter and pilot to airlift a mortally sick teenager.

So with 20 ‘key agreements’ in hand from China (including that strategic partnership) surely that is one of those. Especially with a Chinese spy ship running around nearby. Media helpfully repeat posting up the “tourism” angle. And with India planning to equip Lakshadweep with an airfield suitable for military aircraft it would be a very strong defensive position for the BRICS alliance. Maybe even a kind of visible back drop of support for the local Axis of Resistance headed by Iran once the fireworks start. (Possibly as soon as last night although that has very likely been hyped.)

The possibility of a tripartite deal here to create a military defense corridor in this area cannot be proven but then (I believe) it can't be summarily dismissed either. And while Modi and Xi have not been bosom buddies, neither of them is missing much grey matter. This year is existential. So my initial speculation on cozy plan making in Dubai in December doesn't look quite so dopey right now.

Summing up, we have our first real puzzle of the year as we start its second month. This all has a very Midway like feel to a near comic set of cartoon panels. Time, no matter how rapidly it is running, will ultimately tell. But we are critical thinkers here and something is afoot. (Or afloat?) What do you guys think?

Don't forget to enjoy the 🎥!

Back to Part 1.