Sudan ... the Forgotten Formation?

What happens next...

We have seen such a steep stack of current events to sift through since this spring, that the whole narrative of Sudan has gotten itself lost in the weeds for quite most of that time. This will be an effort to remedy some of that lack. There is a sufficient reason for it though; we are being led to ignore it precisely because the only available window on information is filtered through varied NGO operations. The assumption made then is that you *know* what that means. Massive amounts of inversion and projection lace the scant media offerings as they merely parrot these official “narratives”.

I posit that the recent second attempt at a US/Saudi brokered Sudan accommodation deal in Jeddah - NOT a ceasefire - while nearly simultaneously having a major Arab Hamas/Israel powwow in Riyadh as well is a potent messaging optic. Let's get into the potential what for and why.

Almost all of the MSM coverage of the Sudanese action from day one and continuing still has “bad” RSF vs. “good” SAF. Atrocities and genocide are purportedly constant daily occurrences and they are all practically one sided. Al Jazeera. AFP. Dabanga. Our friends at USIP. This Dabanga Radio/TV web article interestingly links to other resources that apparently they simply don't agree with but apparently thought it prudent to offer. In particular since they generally tow that main narrative picture like a wagon full of gold. This one, Sudan Transparency .org, had a recent update from Sudan Conflict Monitor on the first set of talks in October that paints a much more detailed and even handed picture, if not slanted the total opposite way on the blame game. Most of the RSF problems appear to arise from air defense misses than deliberate attacks; unlike the described unprovoked actions of SAF. So there's the inversion in plain sight. And as for projection; well this Strategika51 post probably explains why:

🔸The war between Russia and Ukraine has been exported to Sudan.

A Ukrainian media outlet published video of an attack by Ukrainian special forces stationed in Sudan on a base used by elements of the Wagner group.

In reality the Sudanese government relies on Ukraine, Israel, and the United States, while their opponent the Rapid Reaction Force is supported by the Wagner group.

Sudan is a member country of the Arab League which called on the devil for help so that its current leaders, vomited by the population, keep power.🔸

(Remember the Zelensky - al-Burhan meeting in Ireland after the UNGA in September? No connection, I'm sure. Or the Ukrainian special forces and liquidators headed to Africa story either.)

This Infantmilitario post earlier this week certainly presents the appearance of buying the accusations against RSF:

🔸The situation in the war in Sudan is deteriorating with reports of unusual massacres in Darfur province by the Rapid Support Forces for the third day in a row.

Hundreds and possibly thousands of civilians have reportedly been killed over the past three days - on a scale far greater than even what they were accustomed to seeing in Sudan in the final months of the war.🔸

Neither of those takes into any account the myriad of armed militias and rebel groups that so far at least appear to have mostly steered clear of the conflict. None appear to have any strong affiliation to either of these combatants. While I don't have an assessment to prove this, I'm thinking that a terrorist outfit without a mission at this point would in all probability shop for one given any excuse. Bet there were “backers” in the vicinity with spare change possibly ready to oblige. And the temperament to commit atrocities for any number of reasons. And then there's the complete lack of verification of these claims by independent journalists to weigh as well.

In any case, we have a continuation from the UN bleating unceasingly about genocide in Sudan and now Gaza but to no avail. All very necessary for that uselessness assessment, though. Although I don't believe the UNSC made Sudan any kind of priority. But, the ICC started proceedings in February against the first of six defendants in a genocide prosecution for Darfur events in 2003 and 2004. How prescient. And coincidental.

This is not a sinecure, but alliances matter. We are all wondering right now what is going on with the swathe of Arab and Turk Islamic nations and how far they will or won't go to protect Palestinians from Israelis. It is apparently not time yet for the “split”. But it will be eventually. In the meantime, it seems that a lot of commentary creators are choosing the reported versions of events as evidentiary enough for distribution. And taking NGOs at face value. This Africa Intel update indicates that trend as well.

🔸🇸🇩 Sudanese paramilitary RSF cements control of West Darfur's El Geneina

Sudan's Rapid Support Forces said on Saturday they had taken control of the army headquarters in West Darfur's capital of El Geneina, cementing their takeover of a city where they have been accused of carrying out a wave of ethnic killings.

The city is the third of the war-torn Darfur region's five state capitals that the RSF has fully taken over the past two weeks, even as representatives for the paramilitary group and the army began talks in Jeddah.

In El Geneina, the RSF and allied Arab militias are accused by local residents of targeting and killing thousands of ethnic Masalit people, looting homes and markets, and raping women. The RSF leadership denies the accusations and says any soldiers found guilty of violations will be brought to justice.

#Sudan africaintel🔸

It seems that we are supposed to pretend that at least some genuine information can be obtained through these sources. At least for now. But as you know, I prefer to interpolate between the lines. Even with all the smoke screens that have been thrown up into every individual vista, there are players in our narratives who will obviously be making the moves to bring this movie to a crescendo scene. To end the game by destroying the dollar and all its affiliated creators.

Those alliances and their movers have been and will continue to be demonized, castigated, and probably even arrested into near oblivion. In whatever ways and means that can be created by all of these consummate opposition professionals. Projection (as we have demonstrated in Gaza) is the longest term technique they have; it has served them for millenia. I think it's high time our first thought for any given narrative is its 180° inverse. But these kinetic actions probably top that list. Doubtful they'll ever let go of those habits - especially as the drain starts to become too small for the flood that's coming.

There were also other “war crimes” recently these two leaders swapped opinions about. The RSF described the SAF airstrike on the El Jeili refinery, about 70 kilometres north of Khartoum, as one. They claimed it was “a desperate attempt to destroy what remains of the Sudanese people’s resources and infrastructure in the country”. According to the SAF, however, “a fuel tanker belonging to the militia exploded in the Khartoum refinery of El Jeili. The tanker was brought in to take fuel without abiding by the safety measures taken at such sensitive facilities, and led to a fire at the Nile Company offices and put the refinery and those in it at risk.” (Which sounds more probable to you?)

🔸Then on Saturday night, the Shambat Bridge was destroyed between Omdurman and the Bahri area of Khartoum. The bridge served as a crucial logistics link for the Rapid Support Force (RSF) commanded by Hamedti in Khartoum.

Representatives of the RSF accused the Sudanese army, led by al-Burhan, of destroying the bridge. They claimed that supply through this area was now difficult, and Hamedti planned to send additional forces from the western part of Sudan to the capital. In response, the army stated that the bridge was blown up by the RSF troops themselves due to the risk of losing control of the route as government troops advanced. This second version seems more likely. (Emphasis added)

Local media reported that explosions near the bridge were heard between 1:00 and 2:00 a.m., and it is likely that powerful explosive devices were used. It would have been challenging for the Sudanese Air Force to carry out a night airstrike with such precision.

Supplying the RSF in Khartoum is now indeed difficult, but not impossible. There are at least three other bridges across the White Nile in dispute: the Halfaya Bridge, the Fatekhab Bridge, and the White Nile Bridge.

The RSF also controls some crossings of the Blue Nile, allowing for the transfer of reinforcements to the Bahri area from other parts of Khartoum. Additionally, the RSF regularly transports personnel and supplies by boat between the Khartoum and Omdurman areas.

Further complicating the fuel supply for Hamedti's troops in Omdurman is the RSF's reliance on a refinery north of Bahri. There have been major fires there this week due to air raids by the Sudanese Air Force.

🔻Whoever is responsible for blowing up the bridge, cutting off this important logistics route will undoubtedly shift the balance of power in the capital. It will now be even more challenging for the RSF to fight for northern Khartoum and Omdurman, especially if the army launches an offensive in these areas.

#Africa #Sudan rybar 🔸

The map above shows that territory controlled by SAF (red areas) is not that far away from the attack location on the bridge (red circle). Both sides of the bridge were areas controlled by RSF (yellow) although the eastern side was adjacent to areas in SAF control. But it's still hard to see why RSF would preemptively blow that bridge unless the eastern side was under considerable attack, but I can find no statement to that effect. The tactic of erasing the access attributed to that bridge for a hypothetical potential attack seems rather unlikely to me. RSF have pretty much been steamrolling their way east and west lately. There didn't appear to be any rush to need to do it right now in any event. And there are other ways for SAF to attack the bridge besides by air (like Ukrainian Special Forces?). Seems more like insta narrative confirmation to me than the usual relatively tight Rybar analysis. But at least they did get the refinery narrative correct.

As I was completing this for publication I found a post from a woman I follow in Sudan. She is not a military analyst but she had this video with a press release from RSF sources. The first 20 seconds of the video showing the bridge speaks volumes.

That looks more like a surgical extraction than any other kind of demolition. And who might be better placed for resources in that kind of underwater operation? JS.

This one from Sputnik Africa is a more panoramic view.

Honestly, I don't really know what all of that is about unless they have all just bought the anti RSF narrative for a very long time and assume it must be legit. The longer the controlled media keep tossing it up the less likely it is to be true by all observed laws of opposition precepts. And when you look at the alliances in play here, Wagner vs. US/Ukraine/Israel there is simply no comparison at all. Or correlation to these likely tales and fables.

Well, that gets us to What Next? As we started out, I said I didn't believe that Sudan and Gaza meetings practically in each other's lap was coincidental. In some way these events are meant to be counterpoints. Expose narrative weaknesses, character flaws, inconsistent statements, and consistent failures. Since we are barely seven weeks out from BRICS expansion, especially in the neighborhood (adding Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, and UAE), it becomes pro forma to speculate on a coming attraction from that quarter. And another interesting item to ponder - even though South Sudan is not a full fledged “democracy” - complete with elected officials - their President takes over as EAC chairman in two weeks. Seems odd since all their usual backers are sanctioning Sahel and Central African countries “just” for not having elections for months - not rising 12 years. But remember this very same President met with Putin in Russia not long ago. There are eddy currents forming in the waters. I'm sure there will be surprises on all sides of this conflict. But it seems some things will keep going along the potential pathways and not the mainstream expected ones. Sudan could be that poster child candidate. Keep watching and stay with us.

Go to Sudan … Balancing on a Knife.

Back to Sudan … Then and Now.

Back to Sudan … Yesterday and Today.