World Expanding [into] WWIII

What the last three days has seen brewing.

Our last look (Escalating) was just over six weeks ago. It covered a two week time frame back from then. This one is barely past three days (for the news section). How's that for ‘escalating’? And yet this may be a bigger volume. But that is primarily because I want to start out with a Nebulator section. A series of posts that are self described as thinking not journalism. Which is why it appeals to me so strongly. It spans one week (except for the first).

Erik Prince (of the notorious Blackwater) has a fascinating article in IM-1776: https://im1776.com/too-big-to-win/

In the sense that his diagnosis of the problem is spot on. His prescription is self-serving and I’m not sure it would have ever worked. And it’s far too late for it to work now.🔸

🔸Russia has just launched tactical nuclear drills. According to Moscow, this is a direct response to a series of actions by the GAE — from London saying that Kiev can use "Storm Shadows" to strike deep into Russia, to Warsaw wanting US nukes on its soil, to Macron running his mouth in Paris. The Russian Foreign Ministry laid it all out.

I hope that this time the GAE will actually pay attention, because so far they have repeatedly ignored any and all Russian warnings and kept escalating while rationalizing it through the means of their massive cope-propaganda-complex. And it's very tempting to believe that, since Moscow hasn't done much in the past, it won't do anything this time either.

But as I have tried to explain here, Russia doesn't do the dial of escalation. It's a switch, from Inactive to FULL WAR. That's reality, whatever we may think and however we may feel about it.🔸

🔸Meanwhile, the Globalist American Empire (GAE) is facing a decision paralysis, with every choice available to it being bad or worse. From this splendid piece by Henry Johnston on RT:

:Ukraine’s impending defeat at the hands of a superior Russian military has put Washington in an impossible situation: it has proven incapable of delivering on its promise of inflicting a strategic defeat upon Russia, but the path available to it – negotiating with Russia as equals or, heaven forbid, from a position of weakness – is simply incompatible with the paradigm in which Washington operates.

"No longer believing in victory, the US is not in any meaningful way helping Ukraine – nobody believes the recent aid package will actually change much. But a diplomatic solution could have the effect of laying bare America’s waning global influence and possibly even destroying NATO as a credible institution. With no good options, Washington is merely staggering along until events overtake it."🔸

🔸Ukraine is "a corrupt sh*thole that doesn’t matter at all," British political svengali Dominic Cummings said in an interview with a UK outlet "i" published today:

“We should have never got into the whole stupid situation,” he says. “This is not a replay of 1940 with the pumpkin Zelenskyy as the Churchillian underdog,” he says. “This whole Ukrainian corrupt mafia state has basically conned us all and we’re all going to get f**ked as a consequence. We are getting f**ked now right?

“Cost-of-living has been a massive shock, [the] sanctions regime has been much more of a disaster for European politics than it has been for Russian politics…

“They [advocates of backing Ukraine] said ‘Oh China will support us’. I said then ‘no China will not, China’s going to make loads of money by supplying Russia’.”

The result he says has been “getting into a war of attrition with Russia who we pushed into an alliance with the world’s biggest manufacturing power.”

But what about those who’d argue Putin needed to be taught a lesson and that we can’t just allow him to invade a neighbouring country? “What lesson have we taught him? The lesson we’ve taught Putin is that we’re a bunch of total f**king jokers.

“I mean Putin already knew that before the war. But this has emphasised it and broadcast it to the entire world what a bunch of clowns we are and America now is doubling down on trying to seize Russian assets so it’s already created a sanctions regime which is encouraging the building of alternative financial systems globally… That’s not teaching Putin any lesson only that we’re idiots.”

He said that for Boris Johnson the war “was like a gift from heaven, a lifeline to get everyone off from his implosion… acting out his Churchillian fantasies.”

“Ironically of course Westminster totally swallowed the whole thing even though they kind of hate Boris and constantly critiqued him as a lying charlatan they then swallowed all of his total bullsh*t on Ukraine and actually took it seriously.”🔸

🔸I'm not sure what to make of this. I obviously agree with Cummings on this particular topic, but I don't know whether he's just suffering from an attack of honesty or if London is desperate to find an offramp and may use his words to change the narrative.🔸

🔸Contrary to Dominic Cummings' sensible (if vulgar) opinions on Ukraine, David Cameron's big foreign policy speech delivered the same day is a pile-up of delusional platitudes. You should read it for yourself — if you have the brain cells to spare, that is — because I can't do its triteness justice in the retelling.

I would like to bring up one thing, however: Cameron actually boasting that "only the US and Britain that have been willing and able to step up and strike back" at the Houthis in the Red Sea, as an example of Britain's greatness.

Um, David... you did pay attention to how that worked out, right? Right? Last I checked, the Houthis expanded their interdiction to British and American ships. The Red Sea and the Suez Canal are  effectively closed to the West. That Cameron considers THIS a success tells you all you need to know about the people who rule the UK.

t.me/thenebulator🔸

🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸

Well, the last parts are thinking out loud but the rest is more like journalism, by bringing it out of obscurity for us to see. Regardless, the message is raw but real. Everyone agrees - this war is a hopeless struggle with only one outcome.

The problem is that d@mned pesky election - actually two of them. EU Parliament and US whole shebang. Over 5 months in total and zero way they can admit any of the above is true until those are in the bag. So that's what the following is all about. A fiction movie to keep you entertained and oblivious to this fact. Until election day or judgment day, whichever comes first!

I. Russia shakes things up. As if it wasn't bad enough that they couldn't stop Putin's re-election, look what he has done now!

🔸Russian forces struck out towards Kharkov over the weekend, slicing up the Ukrainian troops with relative ease, judging by battlefield chatter. Kiev is pulling reserves from Kherson and the Donbass to plug the breach — meaning that we should expect Russian operations there to intensify in the coming days.

Don't look for big arrows — this is no longer that kind of war, not with drones that can see just about every move and reach all sorts of places. This is now a steamroller/hydraulic press type of strategy.

The appointment of Andrey Belousov as new defense minister seems indicative of just such an approach. The Kremlin is playing an RTS game (if you know, you know) and wants someone who can handle the resource management phase really well.

As for Shoigu, he's basically received a sinecure on the Security Council — same place Medvedev gets to sh*tpost from — so it's not really a demotion. Watch for Patrushev and if/where he resurfaces. t.me/thenebulator🔸

🔸Patrushev is an old school KGB type, head of FSB for a decade, total hawk and hardliner. Dyumin is the godfather of Russia's Special Forces as they currently exist, he was also largely responsible for the Crimean operation. He is also currently the very successful governor of Tula oblast, and I know few people in Russia who are as well-respected among the troops as Dyumin. "Assistants to the President" basically means in touch 24/7 and giving reports that are taken very seriously. I'm very whitepilled rn. t.me/RWApodcast🔸

“I have always been guided by a reinforced concrete principle: you can make mistakes, you can’t lie”

Well said.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov t.me/R_Diplomat🔸

🐦‍⬛️🇷🇺 Numerous sources report that General Armageddon will arrive in Moscow on May 15, and will participate in the collegium of the Ministry of Defense.

I've been resting, now it's time to make some noise.

In addition, Alexey Dyumin and Nikolai Patrushev were appointed assistants to the President of Russia. Dyumin left the post of governor of the Tula region - Kremlin.
🚀 t.me/istocni_front🔸

🔸⚡️🔻Putin and Xi Jinping are also planning an informal meeting, Belousov and Shoigu-Ushakov will participate in it. t.me/R_Diplomat/10464| 💜🇷🇺 RD🔸

🐦‍⬛️🇷🇺 Former Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu was appointed Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation in place of Nikolai Patrushev. Actually, he went for a promotion.

Sergei Shoigu will combine his position and oversee the work of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Dmitry Peskov said.

It is reported that one of the Deputy Ministers of Defense of the Russian Federation, Ruslan Calikov, has submitted his resignation to the Minister of Defense (at that time) to Sergei Shoigu. Most likely, the letter of resignation will be signed by the new Minister of Defense Andrey Belousov.

Ruslan Calikov, like many other leaders of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, was involved in several corruption scandals, and almost every military officer knows about his activities.

Since Calikov was from Shoigu's team, it is a voluntary retirement to avoid prosecution, as happened with the second deputy defense minister, Timur Ivanov.

Information has emerged that the officers of the Military-Counterintelligence Department of the FSB of Russia detained the head of the Main Personnel Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (GUK), Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov.

Previously, he was the head of the 8th Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (Service for the Protection of State Secrets). A criminal case can have the color of high treason, rather than corruption.👇
t.me/istocni_front🔸

🐦‍⬛️🇷🇺 Also, it is reported that another Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Alexei Krivoruchko, resigned literally a week before the resignation of his boss, Sergei Shoigu.

Krivoruchko is also a member of Shoigu's team, and as befits an apple, he did not fall far from the apple and other apples like Timur Ivanov who has already been arrested. Calikov, who is still at large, like Ivanov, was the subject of several anti-corruption investigations over the years.

According to investigations, Deputy Defense Minister of the Russian Federation, Alexey Krivoruchko, is married to Ekaterina Toropova, who gave birth to a daughter in Miami in 2012 and who received an American passport upon birth.

According to the investigation, six years before his appointment, while he was still at the head of the Kalashnikov concern, Krivoruchko visited the US 26 times, mostly in Miami.
There, in 2011, he opened a company for which he registered an apartment with an area of ​​255 square meters and worth several million dollars. But after some time, he transferred the company to an employee of his company, Mihailo Tiraturyan.

Journalists also found information that on September 23, 2016, Krivoruchka's second daughter, Anna, was born in the USA, and she also received American citizenship. As Shoigu's deputy, Alexei Krivoruchko began buying expensive real estate around Russia. For example, in 2019, he built a house with an area of ​​1,500 square meters on a plot of 35 ares on Rubljovka. Now his real estate is in the Rosregistry database. t.me/istocni_front🔸

🔸🇷🇺 There is one day left until the meeting of the Board of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, where the public appearance of the new Minister of Defense will take place. The defense department is awaiting Andrey Belousov, because the thirst for change has matured.

But in fairness, the same way they were waiting for Sergey Shoigu in 2012.

It is difficult to say whether there will be more purges and high-profile arrests. There is an opinion that they may indeed go down this path in order to ensure the most spectacular change in the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense: especially since many heads of military administration bodies have skeletons in their closet.

And this will also, of course, affect the morale of the personnel at the front: the news of the arrest of Timur Ivanov, the change of the Minister of Defense and the detention of Yuri Kuznetsov were met with great enthusiasm.

📌 Many are speculating about the real role of Andrey Belousov. But here it was rightly noted that economic optimization should not be expected: the task of the new Minister of Defense is to properly justify new spending and stop the arbitrariness of the "state within a state" in the form of the Russian Ministry of Defense, integrating and synchronizing it with other elements of the Russian military economy.

In the West, they are already pointing fingers in the sky and saying that in this way Russia is preparing for war with NATO. Well, let's be frank: fine-tuning the military economy is a preparation for a major war. So there is nothing to hide here.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
@rybar Original msg🔸

🇷🇺 Well, our information about Yuri Kuznetsov, the current head of the Main Directorate of Personnel of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the former head of the 8th Directorate of the General Staff, turned out to be true: he was indeed detained for affairs during his time as the head of the state secret protection service.

A fair question arises, what kind of commercial structures gave such a large bribe. Equipment supply? Providing information security? Or something else related to the preservation of confidential information?

The scope for imagination is simply colossal (especially considering the fact that Kuznetsov is a person who has always been very cautious). Perhaps the investigation will clarify what it's all about.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia 
@rybar Original msg🔸

🔸🇷🇺 It seems that there are many rumors circulating on Telegram channels about the possible resignation of well-known military officials such as Sadovenko, Shevtsova, Pankov, Konashenkov, and Tsalikov. These reports suggest that they may be leaving their positions ahead of tomorrow's meeting of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

This wave of reports about submitted resignation letters is partly an information attack on the Russian Ministry of Defense during a period of upheaval (not all reports are reliable), and partially a symptom that the Ministry of Defense is an institution focused on the leadership of the department, rather than ensuring the stability of the system.

In an ideal world, a few close associates of the department head could change as they leave with him. However, if we actually see mass resignations, it will be a sign that these officials were working not for the ministry, but for the interests of a particular person.

Moreover, if the departure of these leaders does not cause the system to collapse, and nothing changes, it will raise a fair question: what was the point of their presence in the positions they held? And what was the harm?

The key point is that the Russian Ministry of Defense seems to be overly dependent on the leadership, rather than having a stable institutional framework. Widespread resignations could indicate that officials were serving personal interests rather than the interests of the ministry and the country. Original msg🔸

🔸🇷🇺 According to preliminary information, no new faces other than Andrey Belousov and Dmitry Medvedev are planned to attend tomorrow's Board of the Russian Ministry of Defense. All current deputy defense ministers of the Russian Federation will remain in their positions and places.

So as we said, there is likely little immediate change in the appointments, handover of affairs and positions (even taking into account the submitted reports of resignation/dismissal) of the deputy defense ministers.

Andrey Belousov's statements show that the new head of the defense department is aware of the accumulated problems, but does not intend to act hastily. First, he needs to sort out the information and delve into it.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
@rybar Original msg🔸

🗞️🇷🇺 "Russia's new Minister of Defense is completely uncorrupt, a workaholic and a technocrat," Financial Times citing sources.

Belousov, a supporter of state industrial policy, inspires confidence and is considered by the authorities as a person capable of effectively managing the military budget, the publication said.

His appointment as head of the Defense Ministry indicates Putin's desire to "fundamentally change the approach to the invasion of Ukraine." In this way, the Kremlin wants to tighten control over record defense spending, which amounts to 10.8 trillion rubles (about $118.5 billion) over 2024.

🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

The Western press called the reshuffle in the Russian Ministry of Defense alarming news for Kyiv, since it will lead to a sharp increase in the dynamics of the Russian military-industrial complex.
t.me/BazaFromOlga🔸

🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Former Pentagon chief Mark Esper is afraid of Belousov's appointment
🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸

So, that is a fairly abbreviated look at the panic induction happening over the housekeeping, shuffling, and reorganization happening in the Kremlin before Putin heads to China (😱). Heads aching (🤕) from the river to the sea to shining sea to the Channel to the Med. Apparently some brilliant personnel changes but possibly worse are those detentions! One gets the impression that this is also for domestic consumption but it's big enough for our Empire without worrying much about that. Reminds me of all those stars on shoulders guys who died in the SMO during the early going months of 2022. JS.

II. How the action and provisions are going.

🇰🇵 Russia could receive about 6,700 containers with shells from the DPRK - Yonhap, citing the South Korean Defense Minister

These containers are enough to accommodate approximately 3 million 152 mm caliber shells or 500 thousand 122 mm caliber shells.
🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

Russia intends to create a buffer zone in the Kharkov region, says German expert

☝🏻Russia is trying to create a buffer zone in the Kharkov region to prevent Kiev from attacking its territory, Gerhard Mangott, professor at the University of Innsbruck and expert on Eastern Europe, suggested on Welt.

"Now it's about creating a buffer zone so that something like this is no longer possible," Mangott said.
t.me/tutti_i_fatti🔸

US touts HIMARS to Philippines’ military

While funneling weaponry and munitions to the regime in Kiev, the United States also does not forget to try peddling its arms to countries in other parts of the globe.

The US military attempted to highlight the capabilities of probably one of the most overhyped US weapon systems, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), this month.

This de facto promotional stunt included the US forces attempting to show how HIMARS “can be transported and quickly deployed in a plethora of different ways, including via non-army assets,” Defense News reports, citing US Army field artillery Captain Garret Kohnke.

The exercise in question involved two HIMARS systems being moved around the Philippines via C-310 transport aircraft, semi-trucks and hovercraft before participating in a live fire exercise.

The goal was apparently to present HIMARS in a favorable light to the Philippine Armed Forces.

HIMARS gained quite a bit of media attention after the United States supplied a number of these systems to the Kiev regime to be used in the Ukrainian conflict.

The Russian forces, however, quickly adapted to the then-new addition to Kiev’s arsenal and it quickly became apparent that HIMARS rockets can be intercepted by Russian air defenses.
🔴t.me/geopolitics_live🔸

🐦‍⬛️🇷🇺🇺🇦🇬🇧 Ukrainian forces lost two air defense systems "Patriot" trying to intercept cheap guided bombs, said British expert Justin Bronk for "Daily Mail."

"Unfortunately, it is very difficult to defend against guided bombs, because the Russians can drop them from afar. The Ukrainians have moved the Patriot systems and radars close to the front line to engage them quickly. They lost two systems. A reconnaissance drone found them, after which they were hit by ballistic missiles," Bronk said.

He also noted that these American anti-aircraft systems are a rare and necessary weapon for Ukraine, and that "the hunt for such cheap guided bombs, which are available in large numbers, is very risky."
🚀 t.me/istocni_front🔸

According to The Times, the British military at the Steadfast Defender NATO exercise in Estonia was frightened by alleged possible cyber espionage from Russia.

During the maneuvers, the military was forced to remove SIM cards from all devices and was forbidden to use the Internet.

In addition, Estonian soldiers were forced to jump into a lake during operations to ensure that they did not have their phones with them. t.me/belvestnik🔸

🇪🇺 🇷🇺 NATO is helpless and currently does not know what to do about GPS interference, Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak honestly admitted, whose words were quoted by Wirtualna Polska. In his opinion, what is happening is an element of the hybrid war waged by Russia. However, as usual, he did not provide any evidence of this.

Estonian Defense Minister Pevkur also commented on the situation in his usual manner:

The interference is coming from Russia and has been going on for some time. Regardless of Russia's motives (for example, if it thus wants to protect itself from attacks from Ukraine), the Kremlin is thereby violating international rules."

🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Another infographic on the Americans creating a threat to China and its military installations in the South China Sea by deploying the Typhon missile system in the Philippines, capable of firing SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles.
t.me/china3army🔸

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Over the past month, Ukraine managed to shoot down only 30% of Russian missiles - The Wall Street Journal

The air defense effectiveness indicator has sharply decreased compared to previous periods: over the past six months, Ukrainian air defense forces on average shot down 46% of missiles, while in the previous six months this figure was much higher - 73%.

In the case of UAVs, the air defense efficiency indicator has changed slightly - decreasing by only 1%, to 82% on average over the past six months.

According to journalists' calculations, Russia has launched approximately 45% more drones and missiles over the past six months than in the previous six months. Against this background, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are running out of ammunition for Patriot systems, which were the best defense against attacks, the publication writes. t.me/belvestnik🔸

🔸🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Blinken wants to discuss the battlefield situation and military support for Ukraine today in Kiev, the State Department said.

He will meet with Zelensky, Prime Minister Shmygal and Foreign Minister Kuleba. This is the first visit to Ukraine by a high-ranking American official since Congress decided on additional funds for Kiev.
💜🇷🇺 RD🔸

📰  The Belgian newspaper De Standaard reports that Russia is rapidly expropriating companies with Western capital. This is the cow that, without any courts, seized hundreds of billions of our budget money, property, companies, real estate... Moos.
| 💜🇷🇺 RD🔸

🐦‍⬛️🇷🇺🇺🇦 The Armed Forces of Russia do not allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use aviation - Forbes

The material states that the Russian military is attacking the aviation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at rearming and refueling points, completely destroying it.

“For the second time in two months, Ukrainian army helicopters landed near the front line in eastern Ukraine to refuel and rearm, after which they were spotted by a flying Russian drone. Moments later, a Russian long-range munition — possibly an Iskander ballistic missile — blew up all three helicopters, columnist David Ax writes.

What else does the article say:

Ukraine is unable to provide adequate air defense along the entire front line

Russia has improved the process of target detection and shooting, making it much faster

This allows the Armed Forces of Russia to eliminate enemy aircraft and helicopters at ammunition and refueling points located near the line of contact
🚀 t.me/istocni_front🔸

🔸💢 60+ troops from the neo-Nazi “Kraken” division captured in the Kharkov region, they are giving up information now, Ganchev (Russian military spox) said t.me/NewResistance🔸

💢 The UK gives Ukraine permission to use British weapons in Crimea

UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps confirmed Westminster has backed Kiev using British-supplied weapons to attack the peninsula, as it believes it is Ukrainian territory.

Shapps also denied the Foreign Secretary David Cameron discussed a potential peace deal with Moscow when visiting Donald Trump last month, but insisted Cameron urged the US to "follow the UK's lead" after Britain sent its largest aid package of $3 billion to Kiev.

The US recently sent its latest tranche of aid to Ukraine worth just over $60 billion.
t.me/NewResistance🔸

Grant Snapps <private acct>🔸

⚡️ German Ambassador to Ukraine Martin Jaeger: This month Ukraine will receive a new IRIS-T air defense system from Germany.

Also, according to him, additional IRIS-T systems will arrive in Ukraine until 2026. t.me/belvestnik🔸

Germany refused to protect the skies over Ukraine - NTV

▪️The leader of the SPD parliamentary group Mützenich calls this proposal “extremely dangerous.” The SPD parliamentary faction does not agree to this.

▪️ “The desire to protect Ukrainian airspace through NATO deployment means abandoning the principle that we do not want to actively interfere in the war,” said the head of the faction. 😁 t.me/belvestnik🔸

🔸Poland may build a second fence line on the border with Belarus

“Final decisions on this issue will be made by the prime minister based on the analysis that we are completing,” said Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration of the Republic Czeslav Mroczek.
t.me/belarusian_silovik🔸

Poland cannot transfer its Patriots to Ukraine, since it itself has only just begun to receive the first systems ordered seven years ago.

This was stated by Polish President Andrzej Duda, PAP reports.

“It is difficult to talk today about transferring the Patriot system to Ukraine when we in Poland do not yet have this system completed for the needs of our own defense.” - he said.

Today Zelensky said that Ukraine critically needs two Patriots. Germany promised to give one. t.me/belvestnik🔸

🔸❗️ The Russian group of troops "Dnepr" destroyed 32 observation posts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kherson direction within 24 hours, Governor of the Kherson region Vladimir Saldo reported. 🇷🇺t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

🇵🇱🤝🇺🇦 — Ukrainian media reports that Poland has begun to return draft evaders, quoting a report from the Western Directorate of the Ukrainian Border Guard (DPSU)

➡️ Local border guards handed over a 31-year-old resident of Sumy Oblast, who crossed the Western border, as part of readmission.

➡️ The Ukrainian police filed an administrative report against him, and a representative of the TCC handed him a summons.

➡️ A day before, a 26-year-old resident of Donetsk region was also handed over.

➡️ It happens as the New Government in Poland adopts a more Pro-Ukraine foreign policy as it fears that Ukraine might soon face harsher conditions on the battlefield. t.me/BellumActaNews🔸

🔸🇺🇦 🇨🇭"Both countries are interested in the return of about 11,000 men [to Ukraine]... This would ease the pressure on the already overloaded Swiss migration system"

Betrayal came from where they did not expect: Swiss politicians decided that the non-independent guests were not just expensive to them, rather too expensive. And overnight, Ukrainian refugees turned into "deserters" who should not be "supported with taxpayers' money." They need them themselves.

Now fugitive dodgers are proposed to be stripped of their protection status S and sent to the trench. That's what Zelensky is asking for so badly! 🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

Scholz: Unemployed Ukrainian refugees will be forced to leave Germany

“More Ukrainian refugees in Germany should take up work. This will ensure that they have the right to stay, since currently, according to statistics, two out of ten people are working. Anyone who works here and is not guilty of any wrongdoing will almost certainly be allowed to stay,” he said.

❗️ Only about 25% of refugees are employed in Germany, the state paid for integration and language learning courses for them, and now the rest are “expected on the labor market,” Scholz added. t.me/belvestnik🔸

📰 🇺🇦 "The situation is approaching a critical point": Budanov predicts new Russian offensive toward Sumy, - The New York Times

Highlights from an interview with the chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence:

▪️ In Kharkov region, the offensive of the Russian army will continue for about three to four days, after that their troops may start a new offensive, this time in Sumy region.
▪️ "All our troops are now either here or in Chasov Yar."
▪️ According to him, it is very difficult to find new AFU forces. "I have used everything we have. Unfortunately, we have no one left in reserve."
▪️ The goal of the Russian offensive near Kharkov is to deplete Ukrainian reserves and draw them away from other parts of the line, including Donetsk region.
▪️ According to Budanov, one of Russia's tasks is to spread panic in the region.
▪️ "Our task at the moment is to stabilize the line and then start pushing them across the border."
🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

🇺🇦 🗞️ The decisive battle begins in Ukraine, writes Politico. Russian troops have increased pressure on Kharkov. The situation in the Kiеv region is also causing concern - the Kiev regime is sending half of the new brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the defense of the capital, the material says. However, this is grist to the mill of critics of Zelensky and his government, the author notes, with many believing that the authorities were slow to prepare for the Russian offensive and belatedly recognized the critical importance of personnel.

Now a new law, which will come into force this week, will strengthen the powers of military registration and enlistment offices and make life more difficult for draft dodgers.

“The story when some people fight and are constantly at the front, and some live a quiet life - it is obvious that this is already coming to an end,”

– the publication quotes the words of the official representative of the Ministry of Defense Dmitry Lazutkin.
🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

Ukraine faces ‘a nightmare’ – CNN

President Vladimir Zelensky may have to make “tough choices” in the face of the new Russian offensive in the east.

The Russian Army has captured nine villages since it launched an offensive on Friday, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Ukraine’s General Staff reported that the Russians have had “tactical success,” and said that there was heavy fighting for the control of the border town of Volchansk.

CNN’s chief international security correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, offered a more grim assessment of the situation on the battlefield on Monday, describing the progress made by the Russian troops as “arguably their fastest advance since the first days of the war.”
t.me/ForeignAgentIntel🔸

'Look, there is no doubt that the months-long delay in approving the additional budget for equipment sent to Ukraine just this week has come at a cost. But I am convinced that Ukraine can effectively hold the line in the east. It can continue to build on the gains it has made in the Black Sea, while also keeping Russian forces in Crimea under pressure to make it more difficult for them to continue this aggression. We provide systems for this, but it's a tricky part. We're not going anywhere, and neither are the more than 50 countries that support Ukraine.'

Blinken tells Americans that Washington has everything under control.
t.me/ForeignAgentIntel🔸

Danish PM reveals timeline for F-16 delivery to Ukraine

The first fighter jets will arrive in the coming month, Mette Frederiksen has said.

Copenhagen promised to procure US-designed F-16s for Ukraine and train its pilots last year. Denmark vowed to provide 19 jets of this type out of a total of some 40 aircraft pledged by the coalition. Another 24 should come from the Netherlands.

“The first five planes from Denmark will be in the air in the coming month from now,” Frederiksen said, answering a question about speeding up deliveries of Western arms and ammunition that could prevent Kiev from losing the conflict.

“Ukrainians are fighting at the moment and it is not going into the right direction,” she said, referring to the ongoing Russian advance in the Donbass and Kharkov Region. “The main reason for the losses on the Ukrainian side is the lack of air defenses,” she claimed.
t.me/ForeignAgentIntel🔸

🤣🤣The Russian military, during an offensive operation in the Kharkov region, discovered what in Kyiv was called a “layered defense line.” t.me/belvestnik🔸

🇺🇦 Here are fortifications worth of $1 billion dollars .. at least how much the west paid for them.
t.me/MyLordBebo | X🔸

🔸"The Russians Just Walked In": Ukraine Border Defense Funds Diverted To Fake Companies In Massive "Betrayal"
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/russians-just-walked-ukraine-border-defense-funds-diverted-fake-companies-massive🔸

🔸⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙
The Ukrainian media are talking about a Russian ground offensive in Kharkov, but is this really the case? Nothing is less certain, as Russian forces seem to be extending their operations in one oblast to target another oblast with a view to weakening a third, where river warfare means will have to be employed.
Consequently, we cannot speak of an offensive, but rather the continuation of routine operations. t.me/strategika510🔸

🇾🇪⚡️Yahya Saree, the spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces, stated:

"Gaza is a red line for us. If the aggression continues against it, we will strike targets that the enemies cannot imagine, have not thought of, and even the Yemenis themselves do not expect."
🚩t.me/ResistanceTrench🔸

🔸🇾🇪 Spokesman of the Yemeni Armed Forces: Yemeni armed forces will carry out major operations in the next few days.

Yemenis are ready to fight in case of American ground intervention or if a way is opened for Yemenis to access Palestine.

The Yemeni armed forces have extensive equipment in the framework of the fifth and sixth stages of their operation to support the Palestinian nation.
🚩t.me/ResistanceTrench🔸

🇱🇧 Hezbollah captures an IDF Spy balloon.
CC: US Airforce
🚩ResistanceTrench🔸

🔸🇱🇧 Statement issued by the Islamic Resistance: "after continuously tracking the movement of the spy balloon that the enemy raises over the Admit colony to monitor and spy on Lebanon, and after determining the location of its administration and control, the Mujahideen of Islamic Resistance targeted it with missiles. Three targets belong to it in succession: launch base, which was destroyed and the balloon escaped from, his control mechanism, which was completely destroyed, and his management crew, which was directly hit and its members were killed or wounded."

At the end, Hezbollah successfully captured balloon after destroying the control base.
🚩t.me/ResistanceTrench🔸

Russian successes around Kharkov could push Ukraine into ceasefire, Western media reports

In the event of a potential loss of Kharkov, the Ukrainian forces, feeling "outnumbered and exhausted," may opt for truce negotiations, according to a report by the New York Times.

"Ukrainian troops are retreating, and Ukrainian commanders are blaming each other for the defeats. […] As anxiety spreads, some hard questions loom: How far will this go? Is it just a momentary setback for the underdog Ukrainians? Or a turning point?" the outlet writes.

The recent advances by the Russian Armed Forces in the area have greatly demoralized the Ukrainian soldiers, the article stresses.

Over the past week, the Russian forces have regained control of more than a dozen settlements in the Kharkov region, as stated by Russia's Defense Ministry.
t.me/geopolitics_live🔸

🐦‍⬛️🇺🇦🇺🇳 NATO military aid to Ukraine and its criminal consequences:

A coalition of US and European partners led by German Chancellor Scholz pledged another 7 billion in the latest military package for Ukraine just 2 days after Ukrainian Nazis shelled an apartment building in Belgorod killing dozens of people:

- We are united in our support for Kyiv, we will continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary.
🚀 t.me/istocni_front🔸

Israel ‘amasses enough troops’ for full-scale Rafah invasion

US officials told CNN that they are unsure whether Israel will go ahead with a full-scale attack on the besieged city.🔸

◾ Exclusive content:

◾ Zelenskiy request more and more supplies from his Western overlords. This is the last video with his demands to make front the spring Russian offensive.
◾t.me/European_dissident🔸

US arms will make ‘real difference’ to Ukraine’s defence, Blinken says in Kyiv
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sought Tuesday to rally the spirits of glum Ukrainians facing a fierce new Russian offensive, assuring them that they are not alone and that billions of dollars in American military aid on its way to the country would make a “real difference” on the battlefield.
👉 Read more: https://f24.my/AKYt.g🔸

(One mo sales job fore leaving⬆)

💢 Russian forces open new front in northern Kharkov, take a dozen villages in a day

And so it begins: the "Storm from the North." The long-awaited new front in northern Kharkov Oblast.

The Russian Armed Forces "North" group that has been talked about for a long time, is now a reality, has advanced crossing into Ukraine and, on the first day Russian forces have already seized Zelene, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, Pletenivka, Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, and Borysivka.

Russian Federation forces have penetrated the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from 3 to 5 km in Kharkov region, with a control zone in the border area to 110 square kilometers.

It is suggested that another front will soon open in the Sumy region, putting even more pressure on the AFU. Sumy is VERY close to Kiev. Everything is going great, you guys, give us more money! If only we gave them more money... Get it over with, Russia, please.
t.me/NewResistance🔸

🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸

Psychotic meets Physical. But just bigger than before. And reeks more than an Abrams or Challenger a week after being left on the field because the trophy cabinet is full. But…

Speaking of which the topic of the post just above and our last section are sort of related to that. So here is…

III. Politicians and Psychological Warfare.

t.me/CIG_telegram🔸

🇷🇺 Tactical sign of the "North" group of the Russian Armed Forces advancing in the Kharkov direction. t.me/intelslava🔸

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1789367382089023534🔸

“The future European conflict will arise in Ukraine”

This image was published in the American magazine Look in March 1939. This is the type of military action that was presented in the dreams of London and Washington. However, something didn't go according to plan. Currently, the West has succeeded in realizing its long-standing plan. But we realize that the results of the war they started will again bring them disappointment... t.me/belvestnik🔸

🔸I noticed this confusing clash of contradicting rhetoric in the pro-ukraine space.

On one hand, Russia is invading Ukraine and will invade the rest of Europe next.

But on the other hand, they do not want to send troops into Ukraine to keep the fight in Ukraine; especially the Baltic states, where the argument is that it would just give Russia an excuse to invade the Baltics.... 

But Russia IS going to invade the Baltics eventually right??? =\ 

Its perplexing.... t.me/defensepoliticsasia🔸

🔸“According to the intelligence available to the service, some Euro-Atlantic politicians actually consider it possible, in order to maintain their hegemony, to unleash a large-scale military conflict.”

Sergei Naryshkin, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation t.me/belvestnik🔸(😂)

🔸Russia has so many missiles for the S-300 that it is pointless to shoot them all down, a Ukrainian Air Force spokesman said.

“We cannot afford to deplete our invaluable supply of anti-aircraft missiles. If we try to shoot them down, we won’t have enough Patriot missiles,” Yevlash told The New York Times. t.me/belvestnik🔸 (🙄)

🔸🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has silently removed Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and former President, Petro Poroshenko, from Russia's Wanted List. Reasons unknown. t.me/rnintel🔸

Putin weaponised Economics. t.me/defensepoliticsasia🔸

😂🔥
🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

🐦‍⬛️🇷🇺🇬🇧 British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak accused Russian intelligence services of controlling and directing the flow of African migrants to Europe:

Countries like Russia are using immigrants as a tool to achieve their own goals, and criminal gangs are finding new loopholes across the European border. Illegal migration has put an unbearable burden on our entire security system.
🚀 t.me/istocni_front🔸

⚡️Putin will visit China on May 16-17,” presidential assistant Ushakov.

“At the negotiations in Beijing, the leaders will discuss the situation around Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Asian region. At the same time, Moscow notes Beijing’s balanced position on the Ukrainian crisis; the PRC understands its reasons,” he said.

Ushakov also noted that Belousov and Shoigu would take part in the informal meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping. t.me/belvestnik🔸

"There are more and more reports about the delivery to China of a Patriot complex secretly captured by Russia in Ukraine.

Chinese resources report the beginning of studying the complex in Tianjin, while in the West there have been no official comments on this matter yet, and Turkish and European TG channels hope that the photo shows a model.

At the same time, fears are being expressed on specialized forums that the complex was sold to Russia by the group of Ukrainian military personnel serving it.

🇷🇺 Sofa"
https://twitter.com/SMO_VZ/status/1790108066324590624

/photo/1 t.me/defensepoliticsasia🔸

This is indeed a patriot and it is Taiwanese colors. PAC-3.  The text at the side reads INERT Missile Round Trainer. So its unlikely to be a LIVE missile. Probably a training version with no LIVE missiles.

The "car plate" of the truck is also in the style of the chinese car plates. 津F8238超. The company of the truck is from Xuzhou (with chinese characters can be read in front of the weapon system 徐州)

Taiwanese car plates format is different. Which is usually 3 letters with 3 or 4 numbers, or 4 numbers with 2 letters. 

China car plates with have 1 chinese character (telling which province it is from) with 1 letters and then 4 numbers. Sometimes it ends with 1 more chinese character behind it. 

So this photo very likely to be taken in china.  
The tire of the patriot is deflated. The most likely situation is that this is a training dummy. 

But more wild possibility is that, this is smuggled into China from Taiwan. (we never know).

Interesting photo.

t.me/defensepoliticsasia🔸

🇬🇧 🇨🇳  Britain summons Chinese Ambassador Zheng Zeguang over allegations of foreign interference on British soil

British police on Monday said they had charged three men under the National Security Act with assisting Hong Kong's intelligence service. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee called the accusations "baseless."
| 💜🇷🇺 RD🔸

🇨🇳🐉 Southeast Asian countries have begun to view China as a more reliable partner than the United States

Compared to 2023, in 2024 the number of Southeast Asians who regard the United States as a reliable security partner fell by 12%, from 47.2% to 34.9%.
The share of those who see America as the main partner increased by 12%, from 61.1 to 49.5%, while support for China, on the contrary, increased, also by 12% - from 38.9 to 50.5% - results of surveys of sociologists in Singapore

Not least because of Palestine and Ukraine. | 💜🇷🇺 RD🔸

🤔t.me/wartimedia🔸

🔸🇨🇳🇰🇷🇯🇵 Yesterday, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yong visited Beijing, where he met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi - the sides discussed bilateral relations and agreed to work towards holding a trilateral summit with Japan.

▪️An important point of the meeting was Wang Yi's call for Seoul to adhere to the "one-China" policy. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol stated in 2023 that he opposes changing the status quo around Taiwan - this was perceived as a hint at participation in a potential conflict.

These statements, combined with the strengthening of the alliance with the US, have clearly worsened relations between the countries. However, in April 2024, the South Korean Defense Minister stated that the main concern in case of a conflict would be the actions of North Korea.

▪️The rhetoric has most likely changed due to the trilateral summit, in order not to further irritate the Chinese authorities. Moreover, the president's rating is falling, so the public needs to be shown that the authorities can not only escalate relations with China, but also maintain them at the proper level.

🔻Another discussed topic was the summit between China, South Korea and Japan, scheduled for the end of May. And although it is almost the only platform for trilateral dialogue, it is not yet possible to expect anything significant from the meeting.

Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo, being major economies in East Asia, agree on the need for multilateral cooperation in this area. However, it is difficult for them to reach a consensus on political and security issues - this is dictated by different visions of the situation in the region and the huge role of the United States, which is trying to contain China on all fronts, using both Japan and South Korea.
#China #SouthKorea #Japan
@rybar together with @awaken_dragon Original msg🔸

🔸🇨🇳🇰🇷🇯🇵 Yesterday, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yong visited Beijing, where he met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi - the sides discussed bilateral relations and agreed to work towards holding a trilateral summit with Japan.

▪️An important point of the meeting was Wang Yi's call for Seoul to adhere to the "one-China" policy. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol stated in 2023 that he opposes changing the status quo around Taiwan - this was perceived as a hint at participation in a potential conflict.

These statements, combined with the strengthening of the alliance with the US, have clearly worsened relations between the countries. However, in April 2024, the South Korean Defense Minister stated that the main concern in case of a conflict would be the actions of North Korea.

▪️The rhetoric has most likely changed due to the trilateral summit, in order not to further irritate the Chinese authorities. Moreover, the president's rating is falling, so the public needs to be shown that the authorities can not only escalate relations with China, but also maintain them at the proper level.

🔻Another discussed topic was the summit between China, South Korea and Japan, scheduled for the end of May. And although it is almost the only platform for trilateral dialogue, it is not yet possible to expect anything significant from the meeting.

Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo, being major economies in East Asia, agree on the need for multilateral cooperation in this area. However, it is difficult for them to reach a consensus on political and security issues - this is dictated by different visions of the situation in the region and the huge role of the United States, which is trying to contain China on all fronts, using both Japan and South Korea.
#China #SouthKorea #Japan
@rybar together with @awaken_dragon Original msg🔸

🤣🤣Ukrainian channels began to delete Zelensky’s quote about “powerful fortifications in the Kharkov region,” which he said at the end of 2023. t.me/belvestnik🔸

🇺🇸 American Senator Lindsey Graham just suggested nuking Gaza on national TV.
🚩t.me/ResistanceTrench🔸

(Lost count past a dozen…⬆)

🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine went to Washington this week to convince the US authorities to give permission for strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation with American weapons, the Politico reported.

According to the publication, they are trying to enlist the support of the US Congress in order to put pressure on the White House on this issue. However, the administration of US President Joe Biden does not yet intend to change its position.
🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Secretary of State Blinken rushed to Kiеv. This is his first visit to Ukraine since September 2023. The war in the Middle East just started in October. And from that moment on, State Department apparatchiks began to constantly shuttle between Israel, Egypt and Qatar.

Therefore, over the past 8 months, Blinken has visited Israel seven times - and only now has he reached Ukraine. In 2023, Blinken arrived immediately after the failure of the counteroffensive. Now Ukraine is retreating both in the Donbass and in the Kharkov region. In connection with this, unrest in Kiеv is also intensifying.

From that moment on, Victoria Nuland, responsible for Ukraine at the State Department, resigned on time. Now Blinken himself has to deal with internal squabbles in Kiеv. Especially against the backdrop of the approaching May 21, after which Zelensky loses the remnants of his legitimacy.

Blinken will likely continue to lobby for the appointment of Oksana Markarova, still ambassador to the United States, as Ukrainian prime minister. Although this is actively resisted by Zelensky and Ermak, they are oriented towards the British lobby and do not want to share their powers with anyone.

Now the White House again has leverage with the allocation of trenches that they will use. But Blinken is already a downed pilot, spending his last months as Secretary of State. In six months, he failed all Middle Eastern affairs - as well as negotiations with China. So it is possible that his trip to Kiеv will lead to nothing. Blinken will also be associated with all of Ukraine’s failures at the front.
🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

US 🇺🇸 Secretary of State Antony Blinken plays Guitar & Performs🤘"Rockin' in the Free World" 🤘 in a bar in Kyiv 🇺🇦, while Russian 🇷🇺 troops ▶ Advance 💂 in North East Ukraine.
💠 t.me/ResonantNews 💠🔸

(Organ grinding 🎸🐒s❓)

🐷 didn‘t like his concert in Kiev?😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 t.me/levigodman🔸

🇨🇭🇺🇦The end of the war in Ukraine will not be discussed at the summit in Switzerland - Scholz

“At best, this will be the beginning of a process that could lead to direct negotiations between Kiev and Moscow.”

The German Chancellor also added that the main topics of the conference will be the security of nuclear power plants, grain exports, the exchange of prisoners of war and the taboo on the use of nuclear weapons.
🇷🇺 t.me/ConflictChronicles🔸

❗️Politico: If Kharkov falls, Ukraine risks losing Western support

There is now an "intense wave of attacks" by Russian forces near Kharkov, and this could mean the beginning of a decisive battle in the Ukrainian conflict, writes the publication. And the loss of control of the city would also be a potential loss of Ukraine's ability to continue fighting.

If Kharkov falls, the West's resolve may soon follow.

The publication points out.

If the front breaks through, representatives of European circles may once again demand that Kiev enter into negotiations with Moscow.

Only Moscow will no longer negotiate with Ukrainian terrorists. The Ukrainian contagion must be eradicated once and for all.
t.me/ukraine_watch🔸

Kanani, Iran Foriegn Ministry Spokesman: We support the filing of lawsuits by countries against the Zionist regime. We have legal considerations in filing an official lawsuit or joining these lawsuit.

The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a press conference and in response to the student's question:

We gave political support to the action of the South African government to file a lawsuit against the Zionist regime in the International Court of Justice on the charge of genocide and encouraged other countries to support the honorable action of South Africa.

Every day, we see an increase in new countries declaring their political support for South Africa's action, and also new countries announced that we will join this fight as a new party.

From a political point of view, Iran supports such lawsuits, but in connection with the entry of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a litigant, considering Iran's well-known principles regarding the non-recognition of the usurping Zionist regime as a legitimate regime or country, we have our own special legal approach which is different from Officially joining this lawsuit from a legal point of view.
🚩t.me/ResistanceTrench🔸

🐦‍⬛️🇨🇳🇺🇸 China accuses the US and Taiwan of "military collusion"
🚀 t.me/istocni_front🔸

🔴 Live: Biden administration plans $1 billion in new arms for Israel despite Rafah threat
US President Joe Biden's administration informed Congress on Tuesday of a $1 billion weapons package for Israel, official sources told AFP, a week after threatening to withhold some arms over concerns of a Rafah assault. Read our liveblog for all the latest developments.
👉 Read more: https://f24.my/AKb9.g🔸

🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸🔻🔸

So much of this war is winding up to be in our Political and Psychological Warfare section. Using Odin's Spear as a battle marking has to be a message to someone (Scandinavia?); Z was a real trigger for Germans if you recall. And Azerbaijan used an A last year. Seems like a good research topic - if I ever get the time ⏳.

That Putin is going to Beijing immediately after his popcorn popper personnel reorganization has NATO and Western heads heating up. The US is definitely pushing the warmongering buttons 24/7. When it isn't making a complete fool out of itself. Ukraine is a dead loss. Israel is a PR (soon to be legal) nightmare. They need good press more than any other specific immediate commodity; but a working distraction might suffice. If they have any chance at a war with China, they need to start it while a) they still have weapons, and b) before the whole world knows how mismatched their arsenal is compared to those despicable BRICS/Global South/Principled Antisemites.

Doesn't mean tomorrow or this week or maybe even this year. But there is zero doubt that as soon as practical they are going to have to start something. Elections or no elections, the situation has been exposed as existential with the window closing rapidly. And the dollar is becoming the weakest weapon of all the bad ones they have left.

The politicians don't seem to have gotten the full briefing but they are in the digital trenches every day and know the score. Most of them have worse problems in their constituencies than their countries have with Putin, Xi, and Raisi combined. But it seems those fickle presstitutes now seem to be working a more truthful side of the street. While that appears to still be skewed off center it isn't just outright cover nearly as much lately. That's got to get a boy-girl worried about his-her ratings if not the workings of their agent yet. (Especially when Israel is the agent!)

We will be watching in Technicolor (flag!) detail. Stay tuned.

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